811 Litchfield St · Bay City, MI 48706

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,065 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1900 6,098 sqft lot $103/sqft · 25% above area Est $88k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom home, with updated laminate floors and recently painted on first floor. Great corner lot with a deck in back and 1.5 detached garage. Full Basement.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 44% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $110k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.26%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,262
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: 24.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 N LINN St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,029 (-3%)	2mo	$92,500	$90	86
402 State St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-6%)	3mo	$109,000	$109	82
1115 Litchfield St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-5%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	77
202 Elm St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-2%)	1mo	$72,000	$69	76
905 N Dewitt St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (-4%)	3mo	$130,000	$128	68
427 James St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+2%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	64
118 AUSABLE STATE Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,131 (+6%)	3mo	$155,000	$137	54
705 Sidney St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-5%)	0mo	$175,000	$174	51
305 Marston St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-11%)	4mo	$80,000	$84	50
403 Bradley St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-14%)	2mo	$80,000	$88	50
222 E Murphy St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+8%)	3mo	$212,000	$183	49
705 Frost Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	960 (-10%)	0mo	$175,000	$182	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,488
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $34,782
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $397	+0% $366	+5% $335	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $256	-5% $311	+0% $366	+5% $420	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $394	base $366	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	45d	1	0.65mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    status Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    3 Bedroom home, with updated laminate floors and recently painted on first floor. Great corner lot with a deck in back and 1.5 detached garage. Full Basement.

19. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    3 Bedroom home, with updated laminate floors and recently painted on first floor. Great corner lot with a deck in back and 1.5 detached garage. Full Basement.

20. 2026-03-30
    listed $109,900 Active 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    3 Bedroom home, with updated laminate floors and recently painted on first floor. Great corner lot with a deck in back and 1.5 detached garage. Full Basement.

21. 2021-08-27
    historical
22. 2021-07-14
    listed $97,000 Active
23. 2019-12-20
    soldstatus $60,200
24. 2018-11-08
    soldstatus $10,200
25. 2018-09-24
    listed $14,900
26. 2015-05-01
    historical
27. 2015-05-01
    historical
28. 2015-04-30
    historical
29. 2014-10-03
    listed $34,900
30. 2014-10-03
    listed $34,900
31. 2014-10-02
    listed $34,900
32. 2012-01-09
    soldstatus $17,800
33. 2011-10-05
    soldstatus $16,755
34. 2011-10-05
    soldstatus $16,750
35. 2011-10-05
    soldstatus $16,755
36. 2011-08-15
    listed $16,000
37. 2011-08-15
    listed $16,000
38. 2011-08-15
    listed $16,000
39. 2001-12-13
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,783
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$668
• After-tax cash flow: $3,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+46.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-14 Listed $97,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,200 Public Records
• 2018-11-08 Sold (MLS) $10,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $14,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-03 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-03 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-02 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $17,800 Public Records
• 2011-10-05 Sold (MLS) $16,755 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-05 Sold (MLS) $16,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-10-05 Sold (MLS) $16,755 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $16,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-08-15 Listed $16,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $16,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,275 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.