12079 Grand Herring Way · Jacksonville, FL 32219

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2023 10,454 sqft lot Est $324k · 38% under $8/mo HOA ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with $100 annual fee; CDD fee applies ($2,300)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-647/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12450 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-4%)	2mo	$294,990	$179	69
12354 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+9%)	3mo	$314,990	$169	64
12445 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+9%)	3mo	$311,990	$168	64
12396 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+9%)	4mo	$299,990	$161	63
12462 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+9%)	4mo	$312,990	$168	63
12336 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,862 (+9%)	4mo	$315,990	$170	63
12480 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,489 (-13%)	2mo	$310,440	$208	59
12426 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,489 (-13%)	2mo	$307,990	$207	59
12355 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,490 (-13%)	4mo	$289,990	$195	57
12384 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-14%)	2mo	$277,750	$190	51
12451 Great Eagle Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-14%)	3mo	$282,990	$194	50
12324 Great Eagle Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-14%)	1mo	$309,000	$212	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,291
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-66,098
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32219

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$745 /mo · $8,934/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,386

Max offer price $190,473

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $3	+0% $-54	+5% $-111	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-145	+0% $-54	+5% $38	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-3	base $-54	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12184 Grand Herring Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,195	$1.28	3d	1	0.15mi
12184 Grand Herring Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,195	$1.28	5d	1	0.15mi
5441 Hollow Birch Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,125	$1.43	3d	1	0.41mi
5735 Wandering Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,500	$1.07	5d	1	0.48mi
7552 Chervil St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	2124	$1,995	$0.94	3d	1	0.96mi
9504 Lovage Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,345	$1.35	11d	1	1.21mi
9626 Lemon Grass Ln Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2006	$2,200	$1.10	8d	1	1.36mi
9719 Giada Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,000	$0.94	5d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-04-03
    status Active
14. 2026-02-27
    price $200,000
15. 2026-01-29
    price $225,000
16. 2026-01-07
    price $250,000
17. 2025-10-08
    status Active
18. 2025-10-08
    price $280,000
19. 2025-06-04
    status Pending
20. 2025-06-04
    historical
21. 2025-05-13
    price $200,000
22. 2025-04-03
    listed $235,000 Active
23. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $302,990 Closed 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

24. 2023-08-29
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

25. 2023-04-20
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

26. 2023-04-07
    price $302,990 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

27. 2023-04-04
    price $300,990 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

28. 2023-03-15
    listed $295,990 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to Copes Landing! We are proud to bringing our popular and affordable homes to this quaint West Jacksonville location. Homeowners will enjoy the short commute to any part of the greater Jacksonville area, including Jacksonville International Airport, Oakleaf Town Center and downtown Jacksonville. You will never be too far from home with Home Is Connected®. Your new home comes with an industry-leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,934 · $745/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,934 · $745/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$8,934
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,302
• Household income: $72,184
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.90%
• Current HPI: 263.8901
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $200,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $225,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $250,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — realMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $280,000 realMLS
• 2025-06-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $200,000 realMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $235,000 realMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $302,990 realMLS
• 2023-08-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-04-20 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-04-07 Price Changed $302,990 realMLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $300,990 realMLS
• 2023-03-15 Listed $295,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+215.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,934 · +26.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.