528 Carl C Senter St · Forney, TX 75126

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,214 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1982 4,487 sqft lot $165/sqft · 16% below area Est $239k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready! This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached garage is the perfect fit for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a wood privacy fence that is ideal for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. The one-car garage with automatic opener adds everyday ease. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included, making this home truly move-in ready! Located in the heart of Forney, you’re just minutes from Highway 80, shopping, and dining. Homes like this at this price point don’t last, schedule your showing today! Seller is offering a $2000 flooring allowance.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• One-car garage
• Included washer

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• WOOD PRIVACY FENCE
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• AUTOMATIC OPENER
• INCLUDED REFRIGERATOR
• INCLUDED WASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($491/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,821
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -16.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 Southlake Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (-2%)	3mo	$199,000	$167	74
410 Magnolia Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0	1,264 (+4%)	12mo	$230,000	$182	70
604 Carl C Senter St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (+8%)	2mo	$217,500	$166	69
421 Brazos St	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,236 (+2%)	4mo	$224,500	$182	64
911 Bermuda St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (+5%)	9mo	$257,750	$202	60
506 Rosewood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	7mo	$259,000	$192	58
422 Southlake Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-8%)	10mo	$219,000	$196	57
205 Larkspur Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+5%)	12mo	$215,000	$169	47
910 Downing St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,373 (+13%)	9mo	$238,000	$173	44
534 Meadow Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+9%)	12mo	$200,000	$152	44
316 Bowie St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+12%)	8mo	$250,000	$184	41
915 Pinson Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,395 (+15%)	12mo	$209,900	$150	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,731
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-36,782
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,224/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	2d	1	0.12mi
509 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,299	$1.99	12d	1	0.22mi
416 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,799	$1.42	2d	1	0.23mi
416 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,950	$1.41	20d	1	0.24mi
404 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,900	$1.32	43d	1	0.30mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,913	$1.49	6d	1	0.34mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,723	$1.34	43d	1	0.34mi
907 Alpine St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,810	$1.39	43d	1	0.34mi
603 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,805	$1.46	24d	1	0.37mi
920 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	3d	1	0.43mi
905 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	43d	1	0.46mi
308 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,965	$1.32	2d	1	0.49mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	43d	1	0.57mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	16d	1	0.76mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	2d	1	0.95mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	43d	1	1.15mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	4d	1	1.19mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	43d	1	1.23mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	6d	1	1.23mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$1,620	$1.56	2d	40	1.24mi
5628 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,900	$1.28	24d	1	1.25mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	1.25mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	24d	1	1.28mi
404 Oak St Unit 1 Forney, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	2d	1	1.28mi
4119 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,500	$1.48	18d	1	1.29mi
5603 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	43d	1	1.31mi
211 W Trinity St Unit D Forney, TX	1.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	43d	1	1.31mi
5811 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,999	$1.39	43d	1	1.35mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	22d	1	1.36mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	2d	42	1.37mi
6038 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,999 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active Option Contract 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active Option Contract 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,999 Active Option Contract 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,999 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,999 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,999 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,999 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    price $205,000 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached garage is the perfect fit for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a wood privacy fence that is ideal for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. The one-car garage with automatic opener adds everyday ease. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included, making this home truly move-in ready! Located in the heart of Forney, you’re just minutes from Highway 80, shopping, and dining. Homes like this at this price point don’t last, schedule your showing today! Seller is offering a $2000 flooring allowance.

11. 2026-04-13
    price $210,000 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached garage is the perfect fit for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a wood privacy fence that is ideal for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. The one-car garage with automatic opener adds everyday ease. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included, making this home truly move-in ready! Located in the heart of Forney, you’re just minutes from Highway 80, shopping, and dining. Homes like this at this price point don’t last, schedule your showing today! Seller is offering a $2000 flooring allowance.

12. 2026-04-09
    listed $220,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready! This adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with an attached garage is the perfect fit for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for comfort and convenience. Enjoy a spacious backyard with a wood privacy fence that is ideal for pets, play, or weekend gatherings. The one-car garage with automatic opener adds everyday ease. Refrigerator, washer, and dryer are included, making this home truly move-in ready! Located in the heart of Forney, you’re just minutes from Highway 80, shopping, and dining. Homes like this at this price point don’t last, schedule your showing today! Seller is offering a $2000 flooring allowance.

13. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2018-05-15
    soldstatus
15. 2018-05-08
    status Pending
16. 2018-05-03
    listed Active Option Contract
17. 2018-05-01
    listed $130,000
18. 2015-11-05
    soldstatus
19. 2013-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,224 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,224 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,224
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$669
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2018-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-05-03 Listed — NTREIS
• 2018-05-01 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2015-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,224 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.