75226 Red Twig Way · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$485,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,066 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 2022 7,405 sqft lot Est $421k · 15% over $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look at these upgrades! BETTER THAN NEW - this stunning 4BR/3BA home has thoughtful upgrades including custom built-ins in the living and dining areas, plantation shutters custom fit on every window, extra recessed lighting with dimmers, and beautiful tile work in bathrooms. The 4th bedroom with ensuite is ideal for guests or multigenerational families. Oversized sliders open to an extended, covered and fully caged 320 sq ft lanai with pavers, a built-in grill area, fenced backyard, lush landscaping, and peaceful wooded views. The owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, dual vanities, garden tub and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans throughout, tankless on-demand water heater, water softener/whole-house water filtration system. Bonus highlights include a front porch, 3-car garage, and fully fenced back yard. Tributary amenities feature a resort style pool, pickleball/tennis courts, fitness center, clubhouse, trails, dog park, and year-round social activities. * Some photos virtually staged.

Key facts

• Ensuite
• Plantation shutters
• Tile work

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT-INS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• TILE WORK
• ENSUITE
• EXTENDED COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Tributary Homeowners Association); Annual association fee of $150; Community amenities: clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, jogging path, pickleball, playground, tennis courts, sidewalks; Community pool and community spa; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Fiber cement siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear patio; Rear porch; Screened porch; Fenced backyard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Guest suite; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and separate shower; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (43.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildlight Elementary (math 90% / reading 80%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 1,025 students, 34% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,871 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.86%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $421,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75190 Red Twig Way	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,011 (-3%)	4mo	$410,000	$204	89
75767 Spoonbill Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,006 (-3%)	2mo	$412,500	$206	78
75775 Bayley Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,116 (+2%)	4mo	$420,400	$199	64
75735 Bayley Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,116 (+2%)	2mo	$422,400	$200	64
75713 Walking Path Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,173 (+5%)	3mo	$435,000	$200	61
75743 Bayley Pl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-5%)	3mo	$406,138	$206	60
75631 Bayley Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,116 (+2%)	2mo	$409,350	$193	59
75705 Walking Path Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,226 (+8%)	1mo	$459,980	$207	58
75276 Pondside Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,126 (+3%)	2mo	$390,000	$183	54
75737 Walking Path Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (-5%)	3mo	$487,730	$249	53
75315 Plumbago	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,811 (-12%)	1mo	$387,500	$214	50
75547 Cloverwood Ct	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,370 (+15%)	3mo	$430,000	$181	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $185,596
• Equity at exit: $436,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $607,576
• Equity at exit: $942,248

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,598/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-1,229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,293

Max offer price $267,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-955	-5% $-1,092	+0% $-1,229	+5% $-1,366	+10% $-1,504
Rent	-10% $-1,445	-5% $-1,337	+0% $-1,229	+5% $-1,121	+10% $-1,013
Rate	-1.0pp $-985	-0.5pp $-1,106	base $-1,229	+0.5pp $-1,355	+1.0pp $-1,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75470 Sunberry Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	4.0	2903	$3,150	$1.09	21d	1	0.24mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	3d	1	0.57mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.67mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	12d	1	0.69mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	16d	1	0.81mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	0.81mi
75045 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$2,310	$1.37	22d	1	0.84mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	25d	1	0.88mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	6d	1	0.91mi
75346 Bridgewater Dr Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,300	$1.34	25d	1	0.99mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.10mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	25d	1	1.18mi
65343 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$2,195	$1.28	25d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $485,000 Pending 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $485,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $488,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $488,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $488,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $488,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $488,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $488,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $488,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    price $489,000

    Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

    Look at these upgrades! BETTER THAN NEW - this stunning 4BR/3BA home has thoughtful upgrades including custom built-ins in the living and dining areas, plantation shutters custom fit on every window, extra recessed lighting with dimmers, and beautiful tile work in bathrooms. The 4th bedroom with ensuite is ideal for guests or multigenerational families. Oversized sliders open to an extended, covered and fully caged 320 sq ft lanai with pavers, a built-in grill area, fenced backyard, lush landscaping, and peaceful wooded views. The owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, dual vanities, garden tub and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans throughout, tankless on-demand water heater, water softener/whole-house water filtration system. Bonus highlights include a front porch, 3-car garage, and fully fenced back yard. Tributary amenities feature a resort style pool, pickleball/tennis courts, fitness center, clubhouse, trails, dog park, and year-round social activities. * Some photos virtually staged.

17. 2026-03-24
    price $489,000 1039-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

    Look at these upgrades! BETTER THAN NEW - this stunning 4BR/3BA home has thoughtful upgrades including custom built-ins in the living and dining areas, plantation shutters custom fit on every window, extra recessed lighting with dimmers, and beautiful tile work in bathrooms. The 4th bedroom with ensuite is ideal for guests or multigenerational families. Oversized sliders open to an extended, covered and fully caged 320 sq ft lanai with pavers, a built-in grill area, fenced backyard, lush landscaping, and peaceful wooded views. The owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, dual vanities, garden tub and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans throughout, tankless on-demand water heater, water softener/whole-house water filtration system. Bonus highlights include a front porch, 3-car garage, and fully fenced back yard. Tributary amenities feature a resort style pool, pickleball/tennis courts, fitness center, clubhouse, trails, dog park, and year-round social activities. * Some photos virtually staged.

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $499,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

    Look at these upgrades! BETTER THAN NEW - this stunning 4BR/3BA home has thoughtful upgrades including custom built-ins in the living and dining areas, plantation shutters custom fit on every window, extra recessed lighting with dimmers, and beautiful tile work in bathrooms. The 4th bedroom with ensuite is ideal for guests or multigenerational families. Oversized sliders open to an extended, covered and fully caged 320 sq ft lanai with pavers, a built-in grill area, fenced backyard, lush landscaping, and peaceful wooded views. The owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, dual vanities, garden tub and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans throughout, tankless on-demand water heater, water softener/whole-house water filtration system. Bonus highlights include a front porch, 3-car garage, and fully fenced back yard. Tributary amenities feature a resort style pool, pickleball/tennis courts, fitness center, clubhouse, trails, dog park, and year-round social activities. * Some photos virtually staged.

19. 2026-01-20
    listed $499,000 Active 1039-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

    Look at these upgrades! BETTER THAN NEW - this stunning 4BR/3BA home has thoughtful upgrades including custom built-ins in the living and dining areas, plantation shutters custom fit on every window, extra recessed lighting with dimmers, and beautiful tile work in bathrooms. The 4th bedroom with ensuite is ideal for guests or multigenerational families. Oversized sliders open to an extended, covered and fully caged 320 sq ft lanai with pavers, a built-in grill area, fenced backyard, lush landscaping, and peaceful wooded views. The owner's suite offers a walk-in closet, dual vanities, garden tub and a spacious walk-in shower. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans throughout, tankless on-demand water heater, water softener/whole-house water filtration system. Bonus highlights include a front porch, 3-car garage, and fully fenced back yard. Tributary amenities feature a resort style pool, pickleball/tennis courts, fitness center, clubhouse, trails, dog park, and year-round social activities. * Some photos virtually staged.

20. 2022-05-04
    listed $469,137

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,598 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,598 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$7,598
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,628
• − Management: −$2,628
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$23,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $489,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $489,000 AINCAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $499,000 AINCAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $499,000 realMLS
• 2022-05-04 Listed $469,137 AINCAR

Property tax history

+23.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,598 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.