8315 Lavender St Unit AB · Houston, TX 77016

$479,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,612 sqft · MultiFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,250 sqft lot $183/sqft · 22% above area Est $392k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

New Multi-Family units within walking distance to transportation, near major highways and only 7 miles from Downtown. These units feature 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and a powder room on the first floor. Appliances are included- we have the spec sheets reflecting materials/finishes for interested buyers!

Key facts

• 5,250 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $479k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-921/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $468k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cook Jr El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 519 students, 96% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,093/mo this rent would consume 103% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,300 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,871
• List price: $479,000
• Delta: 22.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7807 Sandra St Unit A/B	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,620 (+0%)	2mo	$430,000	$164	66
7611 Shotwell St	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,300 (-12%)	10mo	$435,000	$189	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $202,270
• Equity at exit: $385,247

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $573,054
• Equity at exit: $786,013

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 19.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$599 /mo · $7,185/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,190

Max offer price $467,888

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $89	+0% $-77	+5% $-242	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-238	+0% $-77	+5% $85	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $45	base $-77	+0.5pp $-201	+1.0pp $-327

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,094
Total (2 units)			$4,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	2940	$1,100	$0.37	45d	1	0.56mi
7002 S Hall St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2628	$1,800	$0.68	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $479,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $479,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $479,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-03-21
    listed $479,000 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    New Multi-Family units within walking distance to transportation, near major highways and only 7 miles from Downtown. These units feature 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and a powder room on the first floor. Appliances are included- we have the spec sheets reflecting materials/finishes for interested buyers!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$7,185
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,929
• − Management: −$3,929
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$9,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This multi-family unit is in excellent condition with new siding and roof, and is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy savings
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy savings ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $479,000 HARMLS