2135 40th St SE · Paris, TX 75460

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1996 5,009 sqft lot Est $173k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks at 2135 40th St SE in Paris, TX! This fixer-upper is ideal for a handyman, investor, or anyone looking to add value through renovation. The property offers a solid starting point with plenty of potential to customize, update, or reimagine to suit your vision. Whether you’re seeking a flip, rental investment, or a project home, this property provides a blank canvas in an established area. Bring your tools, creativity, and plans—this is a chance to transform potential into profit. Complimentary 3-2-1 Buydown Available. 1 Year - 3.625 % (Payment: $ 721) 2 Year - 4.625 % (Payment: $ 793) 3 Year - 5.625 % (Payment: $ 869) 4-30 YR - 6.625 % (Payment: $ 949)

Key facts

• 5,009 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 148 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage, no covered/carport spaces)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1996; Subdivision: Cedar Park #2
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One level
• Laundry & utility: 1 living area; 1 dining area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($158/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aikin El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 937 students, 74% FRL); Crockett Int (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 560 students, 79% FRL); Paris H S (math 60% / reading 51%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 934 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,338 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,168
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2245 40th St SE	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-2%)	15mo	$150,000	$121	77
2255 40th St SE	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+1%)	17mo	$115,000	$90	76
2335 SE 40th	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+1%)	16mo	$175,000	$137	75
3313 Spaulding Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,317 (+4%)	1mo	$260,990	$198	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,283
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-20,082
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $57	+0% $13	+5% $-31	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-39	+0% $13	+5% $65	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $53	base $13	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3215 Clarksville St Paris, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	895	$1,395	$1.56	45d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 681-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 127 DOM
18. 2026-01-23
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$978/yr (+$81/mo · 52.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $155,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,859 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.