12868 Tennyson Dr · Sparks, TX 79928

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2010 0.33 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming home located at 12868 Tennyson Dr offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable and functional layout. This well-maintained property provides spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making it ideal for preparing meals. Conveniently located with quick access to Interstate 10, commuting throughout El Paso is simple and convenient. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, and schools while living in a desirable and growing area.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to dining
• Close to shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• QUICK ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 10
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• DESIRABLE AND GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($726/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,377 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,564 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,659
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,446
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,809/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $117	+0% $60	+5% $4	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-11	+0% $60	+5% $132	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $111	base $60	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12926 Terrington Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.47mi
223 Notts Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1437	$1,680	$1.17	45d	1	0.50mi
213 Epsom Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.50mi
141 Nonap Rd El Paso, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,980	$1.97	3d	9	0.66mi
13090 Beccles St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,750	$1.48	11d	1	0.74mi
125 Via Rojas Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1487	$1,760	$1.18	4d	1	0.77mi
445 Stetson Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,850	$1.26	3d	1	0.87mi
1368 Reid Rd Unit B Socorro, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	15d	1	1.17mi
13340 Horizon Blvd Unit 11 El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	710	$950	$1.34	24d	1	1.21mi
13142 Saker Dr Horizon City, TX	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,600	$1.35	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,950 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,950 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,950 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,950 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,950 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,950 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,950 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,950 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,950 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,950 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,950 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,950 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,950 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,950 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located at 12868 Tennyson Dr offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable and functional layout. This well-maintained property provides spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making it ideal for preparing meals. Conveniently located with quick access to Interstate 10, commuting throughout El Paso is simple and convenient. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, and schools while living in a desirable and growing area.

16. 2026-05-12
    price $199,950 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located at 12868 Tennyson Dr offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable and functional layout. This well-maintained property provides spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making it ideal for preparing meals. Conveniently located with quick access to Interstate 10, commuting throughout El Paso is simple and convenient. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, and schools while living in a desirable and growing area.

17. 2026-04-22
    historical Active Under Contract 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located at 12868 Tennyson Dr offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable and functional layout. This well-maintained property provides spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making it ideal for preparing meals. Conveniently located with quick access to Interstate 10, commuting throughout El Paso is simple and convenient. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, and schools while living in a desirable and growing area.

18. 2026-03-09
    listed $209,950 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome to this charming home located at 12868 Tennyson Dr offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a comfortable and functional layout. This well-maintained property provides spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space, making it ideal for preparing meals. Conveniently located with quick access to Interstate 10, commuting throughout El Paso is simple and convenient. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, and schools while living in a desirable and growing area.

19. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus
20. 1989-05-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,809 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,659 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,809
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$2,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$630
• After-tax cash flow: $1,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sparks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1377
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sparks, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,950 GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $209,950 GEPARMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,809 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.