1842 Ponderosa Ave · Richmond, MI 48063

$69,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 36 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and style! Featuring an open-concept floor plan with a spacious living area, this home is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The stunning kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, modern appliances, a center island, and plenty of prep space for the home chef. Spacious bedrooms provide comfort and flexibility, while the private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat. Outside, enjoy great curb appeal with a large driveway, storage shed, and beautifully maintained lot. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; this is one you won &

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 1.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#385 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• East China School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #208 of 540 in MI (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.63%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $25,743
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $70,227
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48063

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $606	+0% $582	+5% $558	+10% $534
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $529	+0% $582	+5% $635	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $600	base $582	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 Redwood Ave Columbus, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,349	$1.47	0d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,999 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,999 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,999 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,999 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,999 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,999 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,999 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,999 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,999 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,999 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,999 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,999 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,999 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,999 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    listed $69,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $5,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and interior. The home is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior, landscaping the front yard, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances the home's aesthetic
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances the overall look and feel of the bathrooms

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances the home's aesthetic ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Enhances the overall look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East China School District
• NCES district ID: 2612420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,455
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5260
• State rank: #208 of 540 in MI

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #10232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,106

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.87%
• Current HPI: 153.779
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $69,999 FSBO.com