257 Bluebird Ln · Folsom, CA 95630

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2005 $117/sqft · 11% above area Est $170k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful large open concept 2 bed/2 bath home located in the one of the best age 55+ mobile parks, Lake Park Estates. This 2005 build has been nicely maintained and offers plenty of space ideal for relaxing and/or entertaining. Tall ceilings and many windows offer natural light and spacious feel. Pull right in to your very own private driveway with a covered side-by-side carport and extra room on the driveway for up to 4 cars. This home is in great condition and is move-in ready for the next homeowner to enjoy. The park itself is a hidden Folsom Gem! It is family owned/operated and always very nicely maintained. There is a clubhouse with a library, kitchen, bar, ballroom and billiards roo

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Private driveway
• Covered carport

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• COVERED CARPORT
• CLUBHOUSE WITH LIBRARY
• INVITING POOL
• HOT TUB
• ENTERTAINMENT SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $897 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.5% in Folsom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#190 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.35%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,949
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 11.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
257 Bluebird Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,620 (0%)	0mo	$189,000	$117	100
381 Raymond Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,696 (+5%)	2mo	$225,000	$133	78
240 Stonebrook Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,640 (+1%)	2mo	$299,950	$183	70
411 Nugget Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,760 (+9%)	2mo	$245,000	$139	67
587 Southwood	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	3mo	$330,000	$215	67
342 Danielle Way	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	5mo	$155,000	$108	62
340 Stonebrook Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	7mo	$170,000	$111	57
440 Nugget	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,444 (-11%)	7mo	$219,000	$152	55
95 Shadowbrook Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	4mo	$170,000	$118	52
320 Stonebrook Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	5mo	$165,950	$115	48
330 Stonebrook Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	7mo	$206,450	$143	46
230 Northlake Dr	0.66mi	2/1.5	1,440 (-11%)	7mo	$299,500	$208	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $23,185
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $80,429
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95630

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $897

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,004	-5% $951	+0% $897	+5% $844	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $694	-5% $796	+0% $897	+5% $999	+10% $1,100
Rate	-1.0pp $992	-0.5pp $945	base $897	+0.5pp $848	+1.0pp $798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 N Grant Ln Folsom, CA	2.0	2.0	1413	$2,595	$1.84	44d	1	1.06mi
340 Caples Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.5	1423	$2,795	$1.96	8d	1	1.13mi
288 Marsalla Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,495	$2.21	44d	1	1.20mi
1600 Canyon Terrace Ln Folsom, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,348	$2.46	2d	18	1.28mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$670/yr (+$56/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,468
• − Management: −$2,468
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $8,118
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $8,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Folsom

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #6125

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folsom, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 79,484
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,484
• Household income: $139,642
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.39%
• Current HPI: 286.0579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.