5106 Tavenor Ln · Houston, TX 77048

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1964 6,599 sqft lot Est $200k · 17% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced. .. . Better Hurry!!!!! This beautifully remodeled spacious 4 BR home is waiting for you. Remodeled features include beautiful vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops thru-out, fresh paint, new carpet, tile surrounds and more. The spacious fenced back yard with covered porch is ready for entertaining. Buyer to verify room sizes. Don't let this one slip past you!! This house is a MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Remodeled
• Granite countertops

Tags

• REMODELED
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PORCH
• HOUSTON TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1964; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($864/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11406 Glenhollow Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-3%)	2mo	$139,999	$92	83
11407 Murr Way	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,592 (+2%)	3mo	$143,000	$90	83
11926 Panay Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-4%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	80
12106 Panay Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-2%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	76
5102 Tavenor Ln	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (+10%)	2mo	$220,000	$128	76
5315 Fairgreen Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (+1%)	2mo	$199,990	$127	75
5143 Dumore Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,616 (+4%)	2mo	$79,900	$49	68
4407 Mowery Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,556 (-0%)	2mo	$99,000	$64	65
5023 Denoron Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-12%)	4mo	$189,999	$138	56
12002 Comfort Glen Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	3mo	$189,900	$136	47
12702 Fawnway Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,698 (+9%)	2mo	$215,000	$127	47
4418 Groton Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$149	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $18,134
• Equity at exit: $70,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $58,660
• Equity at exit: $106,114

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,016/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $119	+0% $72	+5% $25	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $5	+0% $72	+5% $139	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $114	base $72	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	0.28mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	44d	1	0.54mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	44d	1	0.56mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	0d	1	0.60mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.61mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	0.66mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	6d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	11d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	8d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	12d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	4d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	12d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,119	$1.05	0d	1	0.72mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,319	$1.13	0d	1	0.72mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	0.78mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	0.90mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	21d	1	0.93mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	44d	1	0.94mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.00mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.08mi
5726 Waterford Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	11d	1	1.17mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	1.33mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	27	1.34mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	13d	1	1.42mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	1.43mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	1.45mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	25d	1	1.45mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,016 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,016 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,016
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$426
• After-tax cash flow: $1,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-31 Price Changed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-12 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Listed $275,900 HARMLS
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,016 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.