407 S Davis Ave · Centralia, IL 62801

$99,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1957 Est $135k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This wonderful family home has so much charm!! Two story Cape Cod style floorplan that includes a large family room, eat in kitchen and new bathroom/laundry area on the main floor. The kitchen has tons of space and the cabinets have been meticulously cared for! There are two bedrooms and an additional full bath upstairs, as well. The basement is partially finished and has another bath/shower combo, along with a kitchen area. There is a large rec room area. The home has a lot of updated plumbing and electrical, and it has a sump pump installed. Once outside, you will find a huge pole barn/garage with two space, and an adorable patio area with private seating. Wonderful opportunity to own you

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Large family room
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM LAUNDRY AREA
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not currently leased; Possession at closing
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (garage owned); Gravel parking; Total 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story (listing indicates 1 story); Fee simple ownership; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Asphalt roof; Facing/entry level information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Patio; Mature trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (hardwood); Microwave; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second floor (carpet); Second bedroom on second floor (10 x 10, carpet); Two additional bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile (basement family room)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Accessible shower; Basement bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Drapes; Partially finished full basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (in bathroom); Laundry room (6 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($217/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,000 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1340 E 6th St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (+4%)	1mo	$140,000	$89	74
1318 E 4th St	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,587 (+5%)	11mo	$141,000	$89	68
629 Oakdale Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,493 (-1%)	7mo	$149,900	$100	66
1444 E 4th St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	1mo	$136,000	$101	64
16 Edgewood Ln S	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-1%)	0mo	$207,000	$138	62
6 Charles Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,500 (-1%)	6mo	$164,000	$109	61
535 Davis Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+9%)	11mo	$134,000	$81	59
962 E Broadway	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	4mo	$30,000	$21	58
426 Marquis Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,300 (-14%)	7mo	$105,000	$81	58
18 Arline Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,701 (+12%)	9mo	$115,000	$68	56
610 Short St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (-5%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	48
321 S Maple St	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	11mo	$39,900	$31	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-15,071
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-11,782
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $581/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $46	+0% $18	+5% $-10	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $-14	+0% $18	+5% $50	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $43	base $18	+0.5pp $-8	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 S Hickory St Centralia, IL	3.0	2.0	1814	$800	$0.44	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$843/yr (+$70/mo · 145.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$581
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,518
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$364
• After-tax cash flow: $581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $110,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $581 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.