405 King St · Niceville, FL 32578

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1978 9,900 sqft lot $232/sqft · 9% below area Est $351k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLID BRICK Home with backyard FENCED CENTRALLY Located in Niceville. RV Concrete PAD with clean out, oversized car garage, Roof 2018 with GAF Timberline HD, HVAC 2018 and serviced 2024, Goodman 2.0 Ton 13 Seer heat pump replaced 2014, Water Heater 2010, Rain Gutters installed 2016. Airduct cleaned in 2018. Wiring Copper, Plumbing, Copper and PVC. Kitchen updated 2007 with laminated countertop with solid oak cabinets. Microwave built in exhaust. Little TLC for this house for a perfect starter or Rental Investment with . 23 ac lot with Brick Fireplace.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Rv concrete pad
• Backyard fenced

Tags

• BACKYARD FENCED
• RV CONCRETE PAD
• BRICK FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $320k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,987 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,841
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Sasser St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-1%)	1mo	$327,000	$240	89
420 Bullock Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-2%)	2mo	$324,000	$241	87
514 Linden Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-4%)	1mo	$275,000	$207	81
313 Pontevedra Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+3%)	1mo	$350,000	$246	80
302 22Nd St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-5%)	3mo	$340,000	$259	77
420 Paradise Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+13%)	1mo	$359,800	$231	74
116 Quince Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-3%)	3mo	$338,900	$254	66
1000 Bayshore Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,397 (+1%)	2mo	$270,000	$193	66
1109 Phyllis Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-13%)	3mo	$350,000	$290	65
1535 Valparaiso Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+2%)	3mo	$305,000	$217	62
497 20th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+13%)	1mo	$385,000	$247	62
236 Karen Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+14%)	1mo	$361,000	$230	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,456
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-102,749
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32578

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,012/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,505

Max offer price $287,155

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 20th St Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	13d	1	0.21mi
454 Reeves St Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	43d	1	0.40mi
225 Hudson Boyd Ct Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	13d	1	0.43mi
103 22nd St Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	43d	1	0.48mi
1401 Beaver Run Rd Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,900	$1.31	43d	1	0.58mi
1407 Beaver Run Rd Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.59mi
124 Harding Rd Unit B Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,300	$1.47	13d	1	0.61mi
125 Farrah Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1696	$2,200	$1.30	13d	1	0.72mi
912 Nutmeg Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	13d	1	0.76mi
912 Nutmeg Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	43d	1	0.76mi
1105 Rhonda Dr Niceville, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,500	$1.57	21d	1	0.77mi
1717 26th St Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,895	$1.28	43d	1	0.77mi
1038 37th St Niceville, FL	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,100	$1.20	21d	1	0.92mi
289 Honeysuckle Way Niceville, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$3,000	$1.82	13d	1	0.94mi
1755 Union Ave #14 Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1317	$2,200	$1.67	21d	1	0.99mi
210 Honeysuckle Way Niceville, FL	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,350	$1.35	13d	1	0.99mi
561 Bayshore Dr Unit 1 Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	43d	1	1.05mi
203 John Sims Pkwy Unit F Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	43d	1	1.38mi
Hickory Ave Niceville, FL	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,475	$1.43	43d	1	1.41mi
133 3rd St Unit B Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	915	$1,425	$1.56	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-11-29
   listed $320,000 Active 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   SOLID BRICK Home with backyard FENCED CENTRALLY Located in Niceville. RV Concrete PAD with clean out, oversized car garage, Roof 2018 with GAF Timberline HD, HVAC 2018 and serviced 2024, Goodman 2.0 Ton 13 Seer heat pump replaced 2014, Water Heater 2010, Rain Gutters installed 2016. Airduct cleaned in 2018. Wiring Copper, Plumbing, Copper and PVC. Kitchen updated 2007 with laminated countertop with solid oak cabinets. Microwave built in exhaust. Little TLC for this house for a perfect starter or Rental Investment with . 23 ac lot with Brick Fireplace.

2. 2013-10-17
   historical
3. 2011-08-05
   listed $149,900
4. 2011-08-05
   listed $149,900
5. 2007-12-04
   soldstatus $155,000
6. 2007-11-30
   soldstatus $155,000
7. 2007-11-30
   soldstatus $155,000
8. 2007-11-21
   soldstatus $115,000
9. 2007-11-02
   listed $159,900
10. 2007-11-02
    listed $159,900
11. 1994-10-17
    soldstatus $72,000
12. 1994-06-15
    listed $72,000
13. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$644/yr (+$54/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,012
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Niceville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #2207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,738
• Household income: $108,972
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.87%
• Current HPI: 498.41
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+424.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-29 Listed $320,000 ECAR
• 2013-10-17 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2011-08-05 Listed $149,900 NAMLS
• 2011-08-05 Listed $149,900 ECAR
• 2007-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NAMLS
• 2007-11-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 ECAR
• 2007-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-02 Listed $159,900 NAMLS
• 2007-11-02 Listed $159,900 ECAR
• 1994-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-15 Listed $72,000 ECAR
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2021): $2,012 · -14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.