4125 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155

$243,567

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $137/sqft · 16% below area Est $288k · 16% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The one-story Afton provides 4 bedrooms and a large gathering room that connects to the island kitchen with a walk-in pantry and breakfast bar. The foyer with coat closet is a notable feature of this new construction plan!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,276 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,486
• List price: $243,567
• Delta: -15.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4138 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,837 (+3%)	2mo	$248,932	$136	86
4141 Bermuda Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+9%)	1mo	$256,696	$133	77
4020 Lily Glade Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,837 (+3%)	4mo	$269,302	$147	75
4134 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-11%)	0mo	$233,375	$148	71
4053 Bermuda Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,619 (-9%)	4mo	$247,732	$153	70
4014 Paddock Trl	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (+5%)	5mo	$305,665	$164	68
4061 Bermuda Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-11%)	0mo	$238,475	$151	66
4142 Bermuda Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+14%)	5mo	$274,390	$135	63
4069 Bermuda Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+14%)	4mo	$268,230	$132	60
4138 Lily Glade	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-15%)	3mo	$199,000	$132	57
320 Pacific Waters	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+6%)	4mo	$220,000	$117	52
336 Pacific Waters	0.68mi	4/2.5	1,987 (+12%)	2mo	$213,000	$107	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-55,882
• Equity at exit: $36,317

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-74,614
• Equity at exit: $21,059

Cash invested: $68,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,240 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 404 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1833
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,654/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $210,277

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-146	+0% $-230	+5% $-314	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-305	+0% $-230	+5% $-155	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-168	base $-230	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,892
• Closing costs: $7,307
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	2300	$2,000	$0.87	77d	1	0.06mi
165 Wild Creek Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,750	$1.17	0d	1	0.10mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2601	$2,359	$0.91	139d	1	0.15mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	93d	1	0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,575	$1.05	0d	1	0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	97d	1	0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	87d	1	0.16mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	2218	$1,750	$0.79	0d	1	0.23mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2218	$1,850	$0.83	24d	1	0.23mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,510	$1.02	72d	1	0.51mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,576	$1.07	68d	1	0.51mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,773	$1.06	67d	1	0.60mi
3809 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,795	$0.96	24d	1	0.71mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,650	$0.88	24d	1	0.72mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	106d	1	0.73mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,495	$1.01	56d	1	0.73mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	93d	1	0.75mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,419	$0.96	76d	1	0.75mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,695	$1.02	56d	1	0.80mi
484 Cordova Loop Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,850	$1.50	0d	1	1.11mi
160 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,990	$1.19	0d	1	1.41mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,755	$0.76	110d	1	1.46mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$1,821	$0.79	106d	1	1.46mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$1,596	$0.84	24d	1	1.47mi
2721 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$1,530	$0.80	9d	1	1.47mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2304	$2,149	$0.93	0d	1	1.48mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,516	$0.79	79d	1	1.48mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,095	$1.10	0d	1	1.49mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,195	$1.15	84d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association transfer fee applicable
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeCommunity amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water and sewer provided by SeguinElectric service by GVECGarbage service by SeguinEnergy Star certified
• Home design: New construction by PulteFront exposure facing north and eastLevel lot and level driveAccessible/adaptive home
• Construction: Stone and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Pulte (new)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windowsStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen (14 x 10)Stove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (13 x 13)Bedroom 2 (10 x 11)Bedroom 3 (10 x 11)Bedroom 4 (10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (10 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with separate dining room and island kitchenWalk-in pantryUtility room insideCable TV available and high-speed internetSolid countertopsSmoke alarmVent fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connectionsUtility room (10 x 9)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $243,567 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $243,567 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $243,567 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $243,567 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $243,567 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $243,567 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $243,567 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $243,567 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $243,567 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $243,567 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $243,567 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    statusdays on market $243,567 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $243,567 Price Change 135 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $243,567 Price Change 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $243,567 Price Change 128 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $243,567 Price Change 127 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $243,567 Price Change 126 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 123 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 122 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 121 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 120 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 119 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 117 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 116 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 115 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $243,467 Price Change 114 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    pricestatusdays on market $243,467 Price Change 113 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $253,467 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $253,467 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $253,467 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $253,467 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $253,467 Active 108 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $253,467 Active 107 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $253,467 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $253,467 Active 105 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $253,467 Active 104 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $253,467 Active 103 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $253,467 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $253,467 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $253,467 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $253,467 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $253,467 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $253,467 Active 96 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $253,467 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $253,467 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,467 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,467 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $253,467 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    statusdays on market $253,467 Active 87 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,644
• − Property taxes: −$3,654
• − Insurance: −$1,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,086
• Taxable loss: −$7,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout and ample natural light, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association transfer fee applicable
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeCommunity amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water and sewer provided by SeguinElectric service by GVECGarbage service by SeguinEnergy Star certified
• Home design: New construction by PulteFront exposure facing north and eastLevel lot and level driveAccessible/adaptive home
• Construction: Stone and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Pulte (new)
• Exterior features: Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windowsStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen (14 x 10)Stove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (13 x 13)Bedroom 2 (10 x 11)Bedroom 3 (10 x 11)Bedroom 4 (10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (10 x 9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with separate dining room and island kitchenWalk-in pantryUtility room insideCable TV available and high-speed internetSolid countertopsSmoke alarmVent fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connectionsUtility room (10 x 9)

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $258,467 LERA
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $261,467 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Listed $257,567 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Listed $257,567 Zillow