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4125 Lazy Lily Dr
D Composite 40.51
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.8/30.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.6/10.0
  • DSCR +1.9/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$253,467

4125 Lazy Lily Dr · Seguin, TX 78155
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $143/sqft · 12% below area Est $289k · 12% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The one-story Afton provides 4 bedrooms and a large gathering room that connects to the island kitchen with a walk-in pantry and breakfast bar. The foyer with coat closet is a notable feature of this new construction plan!

Key facts

  • 4,791 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (16.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (24.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $192k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
  • Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $192,354 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.76%
Cap rate
4.96%
Cash-on-cash
-4.77%
DSCR
0.79
GRM
11.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$288,797
List price
$253,467
Delta
-12.23%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
4138 Bermuda Ln 0.11mi 4/2.5 1,837 (+3%) 0mo $248,932 $136 87
4020 Lily Glade Ln 0.31mi 4/2.5 1,837 (+3%) 2mo $269,302 $147 76
4125 Bermuda Ln 0.14mi 4/2.0 1,937 (+9%) 4mo $289,696 $150 75
4053 Bermuda Ln 0.22mi 4/2.5 1,619 (-9%) 2mo $247,732 $153 71
4014 Paddock Trl 0.30mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,866 (+5%) 4mo $305,665 $164 70
4029 Lily Glade Ln 0.28mi 4/2.5 1,619 (-9%) 4mo $239,290 $148 67
4142 Bermuda Ln 0.11mi 4/3.0 2,029 (+14%) 4mo $274,390 $135 64
4069 Bermuda Ln 0.19mi 4/3.0 2,029 (+14%) 2mo $268,230 $132 62
4057 Bermuda Ln 0.21mi 4/3.0 2,029 (+14%) 4mo $284,100 $140 59
4138 Lily Glade 0.24mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,512 (-15%) 1mo $199,000 $132 58
320 Pacific Waters 0.68mi 4/2.5 1,885 (+6%) 3mo $220,000 $117 54
336 Pacific Waters 0.68mi 4/2.5 1,987 (+12%) 1mo $213,000 $107 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-25.5%
Equity multiple
0.14×
Total profit
$-60,818
Equity at exit
$37,793
10-year hold
IRR
-25.0%
Equity multiple
-0.17×
Total profit
$-83,256
Equity at exit
$21,915

Cash invested: $70,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
35 active · 13 under contract
Months of supply
7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$278,490 ($167/sqft)
Median days on market
417 d
This list price
14% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

Rents YoY
2.0%
Active inventory
1603
Price-to-rent
11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,924 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,329
Tax est. 1.5%
$317 /mo · $3,802/yr
Insurance
$106
HOA
$50
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$404
Net cashflow
$-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281
Max offer price $212,653
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-107 -5% $-194 +0% $-282 +5% $-370 +10% $-457
Rent -10% $-434 -5% $-358 +0% $-282 +5% $-206 +10% $-130
Rate -1.0pp $-154 -0.5pp $-218 base $-282 +0.5pp $-348 +1.0pp $-415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$63,367
Closing costs
$7,604
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 22 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4134 Wild Bloom Rd Seguin, TX 3.0 2.5 2300 $2,000 $0.87 31d 1 0.06mi
4044 Sun Meadow Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2601 $2,359 $0.91 93d 1 0.15mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1937 $1,995 $1.03 46d 1 0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 51d 1 0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,625 $1.09 41d 1 0.16mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1494 $1,575 $1.05 9d 1 0.16mi
4089 Lily Glade Ln Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2218 $1,950 $0.88 9d 1 0.23mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,576 $1.07 22d 1 0.51mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,510 $1.02 25d 1 0.51mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,773 $1.06 20d 1 0.60mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,799 $0.96 9d 1 0.72mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX 4.0 2.5 1874 $1,825 $0.97 60d 1 0.73mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,495 $1.01 9d 1 0.73mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,549 $1.05 46d 1 0.75mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,419 $0.96 29d 1 0.75mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,695 $1.02 9d 1 0.80mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,821 $0.79 60d 1 1.46mi
2712 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $1,755 $0.76 64d 1 1.46mi
227 Cordova Xing Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 2304 $2,200 $0.95 9d 1 1.48mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX 3.0 2.0 1910 $1,516 $0.79 32d 1 1.48mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 37d 1 1.49mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX 4.0 3.0 1910 $2,195 $1.15 9d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info
Association transfer fee applicable
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAQuarterly HOA feeCommunity amenities include pool and park/playground

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage
Utilities
Water and sewer provided by SeguinElectric service by GVECGarbage service by SeguinEnergy Star certified
Home design
New construction by PulteFront exposure facing north and eastLevel lot and level driveAccessible/adaptive home
Construction
Stone and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Pulte (new)
Exterior features
Covered patioPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windowsStreet paved with curbs, sidewalks and streetlights

Interior

Kitchen
Island kitchen (14 x 10)Stove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms
Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet (13 x 13)Bedroom 2 (10 x 11)Bedroom 3 (10 x 11)Bedroom 4 (10 x 11)
Flooring
CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity (10 x 9)
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Open floor plan with separate dining room and island kitchenWalk-in pantryUtility room insideCable TV available and high-speed internetSolid countertopsSmoke alarmVent fan
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer connectionsUtility room (10 x 9)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $253,467 Active 100 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $253,467 Active 98 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $253,467 Active 97 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $253,467 Active 96 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $253,467 Active 95 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $253,467 Active 92 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,467 Active 91 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $253,467 Active 90 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $253,467 Active 89 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    statusdays on market $253,467 Active 87 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 85 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 84 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 83 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 82 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 81 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 79 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 78 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $253,467 Price Change 77 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    pricestatusdays on market $253,467 Price Change 76 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $258,467 Active 75 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,467 Active 74 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,467 Active 73 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $258,467 Active 72 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $258,467 Active 71 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $258,467 Active 70 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $258,467 Active 68 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $258,467 Active 67 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $258,467 Active 66 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $258,467 Active 64 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $258,467 Active 63 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $258,467 Active 62 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $258,467 Active 61 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $258,467 Active 60 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    statusdays on market $258,467 Active 59 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 58 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 57 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 55 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 53 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 52 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $258,467 Price Change 49 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    pricestatus $258,467 Price Change 48 DOM
    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Available for July 2026! The one-story Afton provides 4 bedrooms and a large gathering room that connects to the island kitchen with a walk-in pantry and breakfast bar. The foyer with coat closet is a notable feature of this new construction plan!

  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $257,567 Active 48 DOM
    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Available for July 2026! The one-story Afton provides 4 bedrooms and a large gathering room that connects to the island kitchen with a walk-in pantry and breakfast bar. The foyer with coat closet is a notable feature of this new construction plan!

  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $257,567 Active 47 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $257,567 Active 46 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $257,567 Active 44 DOM
  46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $257,567 Active 43 DOM
  47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $257,567 Active 40 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $257,567 Active 39 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,567 Active 38 DOM
  50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,567 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,082
− Mortgage interest
−$14,198
− Property taxes
−$3,802
− Insurance
−$1,267
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,847
− Management
−$1,847
− HOA
−$600
− Depreciation
−$7,374
Taxable loss
−$7,852
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,884
After-tax cash flow
$-1,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout and ample natural light, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value to the property.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro J H C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Navarro ISD
NCES district ID
4832160
Math proficiency
48% ▼ -19.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$66,008
Composite
43.49/100
National rank
#2996
State rank
#166 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

Score
66/100
State rank
#592
US rank
#11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Seguin, TX
County
Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
City population
55,600
Metro
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP)
55,600
Household income
$71,039
Rent vs Own
27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden
17% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
196,854 people
By 2030
220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040
268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050
316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075
434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100
520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 41%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin
Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing
+1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.3% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-17 Price Changed $258,467 LERA
  • 2026-06-17 Price Changed $261,467 Zillow
  • 2026-04-21 Listed $257,567 LERA
  • 2026-04-17 Listed $257,567 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…