909 Brayton Park Pl · Utica, NY 13502

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1920 Est $185k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New porch, new drive way, new gas furnace, attic is insulated

Key facts

• New drive way
• New porch
• Attic is insulated

Tags

• NEW PORCH
• NEW DRIVE WAY
• NEW GAS FURNACE
• ATTIC IS INSULATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.42%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,962
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1006 Downer Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,059 (-3%)	6mo	$199,999	$97	74
1027 Ney Ave	0.35mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,093 (-2%)	5mo	$70,000	$33	68
1125 Downer Ave	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,000 (-6%)	6mo	$188,000	$94	61
1025 Churchill Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (-15%)	1mo	$200,000	$111	61
19 Kernan Ave	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,864 (-12%)	18mo	$110,000	$59	53
2216 Caroline St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (-13%)	2mo	$299,900	$161	48
1046 Erie St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	2,400 (+13%)	4mo	$80,000	$33	44
1208 Green St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,851 (-13%)	11mo	$23,000	$12	44
2305 W Whitesboro St	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,832 (-14%)	8mo	$159,000	$87	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,983
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $56,306
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,071

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $4,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,134
• After-tax cash flow: $5,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,665 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.