1611 Forrest St · Mobile, AL 36605

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1987 7,104 sqft lot Est $77k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brick home sits in a prime, high-demand location just minutes from Brookley Field International Airport and immediate interstate access. With comfortable sized bedrooms, a spacious kitchen, and large den, it is in need of TLC. The interior offers a practical layout that’s ready for renovation, reconfiguration, or modernization. With the right vision and improvements, this property can quickly turn into a profitable investment in an area positioned for continued growth and steady tenant demand.

Key facts

• Practical layout
• Ready for renovation
• Steady tenant demand

Tags

• IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE ACCESS
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• READY FOR RENOVATION
• STEADY TENANT DEMAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maryvale Elementary School (math 5% / reading 25%, grade F, #505 of 627 statewide, top 81%, 494 students, 92% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($44k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.75%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1477 Fairfield St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+1%)	6mo	$147,500	$99	84
1463 Fairfield St	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,552 (+5%)	13mo	$172,000	$111	67
1400 Ghent St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+6%)	20mo	$60,000	$38	62
1017 Houston St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-3%)	3mo	$24,900	$17	58
1820 Barkley Dr N	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,418 (-4%)	12mo	$80,000	$56	57
1707 Belfast St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-2%)	8mo	$33,000	$23	56
1164 Evangeline St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+5%)	4mo	$80,000	$52	55
1612 Robert E Lee St	0.27mi	3/0.5	1,288 (-13%)	7mo	$53,000	$41	54
1464 Barkley Dr W	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (+8%)	11mo	$32,000	$20	53
1605 Van Dorn St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,290 (-12%)	18mo	$40,000	$31	52
1906 Maryvale St N	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-10%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	43
1700 Dominick St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-13%)	17mo	$115,000	$90	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $17,988
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $78,775
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36605

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,674/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $416	+0% $392	+5% $368	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $341	+0% $392	+5% $442	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $413	base $392	+0.5pp $370	+1.0pp $347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2008 W Victory Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1011	$1,200	$1.19	44d	1	0.78mi
706 Cherokee St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,375	$1.09	21d	1	0.79mi
2068 Victory Ct Mobile, AL	4.0	1.0	1259	$1,225	$0.97	44d	1	0.84mi
1204 Seneca St Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,345	$0.94	14d	1	0.95mi
1351 Dauphin Island Pkwy Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,095	$1.10	44d	1	1.00mi
611 Dauphin Island Pkwy Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	1.02mi
561 Dauphin Island Pkwy Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,050	$0.76	44d	1	1.10mi
817 Hawkins St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1217	$1,200	$0.99	44d	1	1.17mi
618 Clarke St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1427	$1,200	$0.84	44d	1	1.22mi
615 Mohawk St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,500	$1.28	44d	1	1.25mi
562 Clarke St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	44d	1	1.26mi
2055 Steiner St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1797	$895	$0.50	44d	1	1.30mi
1601 Neshota Dr Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0	815	$825	$1.01	14d	7	1.31mi
1601 Neshota Dr Apt 86 Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	880	$900	$1.02	44d	1	1.31mi
900 Courtney St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	44d	1	1.32mi
2425 Nortons Ln Unit C Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	1.39mi
2425 Nortons Ln Unit D Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	14d	1	1.39mi
713 Iris Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1617	$1,300	$0.80	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-17
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,674
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $3,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,104
• Household income: $43,538
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1521.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.46%
• Current HPI: 125.9526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.26%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-24 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-17 Listed $85,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+58.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,674 · +106.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.