406 Pecan Cir · Brandon, MS 39042

$264,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,603 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 0.36 ac lot Est $266k · at est. $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3bed/2bath in Pecan Ridge Subdivision! Hardwood and tile flooring throughout, NO CARPET! Split plan with large master! Fully fenced large backyard. Call your REALTOR today!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Split floor plan
• Primary suite

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• CUSTOM BUILT-INS
• EAT-IN BREAKFAST NOOK
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee: $25 (covers management); Community sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Garage faces front
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Slab patio/porch; Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; His and hers closets; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Living room fireplace; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rouse Elementary (797 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,672 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,098
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Stuart Xing	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+0%)	1mo	$264,000	$164	95
452 Pecan Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-1%)	10mo	$264,900	$166	83
2017 Rolling Hill Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-6%)	3mo	$243,000	$160	81
614 Spencer Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-7%)	2mo	$245,000	$165	78
1113 Orchardview Cv	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,603 (0%)	0mo	$274,900	$171	75
550 Pecan Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	75
434 Pecan Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-10%)	0mo	$255,000	$177	72
0 Pecan Cir	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,706 (+6%)	9mo	$314,900	$185	71
300 Peachtree St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+0%)	1mo	$272,900	$170	68
301 Garden Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-2%)	6mo	$245,000	$155	63
306 Garden Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+3%)	4mo	$254,900	$154	61
116 Pavilion Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-6%)	7mo	$229,900	$152	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-39,778
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,432
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,818/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $250,144

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-9	+0% $-84	+5% $-159	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-163	+0% $-84	+5% $-6	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-17	base $-84	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1290 W Government St Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,915	$1.70	15d	27	0.28mi
31 Pebble Hill Dr Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,950	$1.27	15d	1	1.07mi
7 Sandway Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,156	$1.09	45d	1	1.21mi
202 Overby St Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,786	$1.28	45d	1	1.31mi
77 Fern Valley Rd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	15d	1	1.36mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,609	$1.49	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   status $264,999 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $264,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,818 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,093 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,818
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $264,999 MLSU
• 2024-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-05-27 Listed $199,500 MLSU
• 2018-12-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-10-28 Listed $174,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,818 · -43.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.