3179 Ely Pucketts Creek Rd · Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$27,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 146 Days on market

Built 1984 Poor condition 5,662 sqft lot $26/sqft · at area comps Est $29k · at est. ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fenced yard
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN DINING AREA
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flatwoods Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Pennington Middle (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 274 students, 100% FRL); Lee High (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B-, #226 of 319 statewide, top 72%, 781 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($190 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.99%
• DSCR: 5.23
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $28,513
• List price: $27,500
• Delta: -3.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $46,116
• Equity at exit: $16,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 14.70×
• Total profit: $105,471
• Equity at exit: $29,486

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24277

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $629	-5% $619	+0% $610	+5% $600	+10% $591
Rent	-10% $530	-5% $570	+0% $610	+5% $650	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $623	-0.5pp $617	base $610	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,500 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,500 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $27,500 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $27,500 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $27,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $27,500 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $27,500 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $27,500 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $27,500 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $27,500 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $27,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $27,500 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    status Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

14. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

15. 2026-04-30
    price $27,500 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

16. 2026-03-27
    price $31,000 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

17. 2026-01-15
    listed $39,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    BIG PRICE CHANGE!! ! Looking for a Project, a Rental Property, or a Home for Yourself! House Has Lots of Potential --Three Bedrooms, Large Kitchen/Dining Area, One Bath, Covered Front Porch, Public Water, Fenced Yard--Selling ''AS IS'' NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS ONE!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $7,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $5,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and repairs, including new siding, flooring, and appliances, to become a move-in-ready home with significant potential for resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Severe weathering and damage
• Major flooring — Worn-out and in need of replacement
• Major interior walls — Peeling paint and structural damage
• Major kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and possibly moldy
• Major roof — No visible damage, but potential issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both New siding — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both Paint job — Refreshes interior and exterior
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value
• Both Roof inspection and repair — Ensures structural integrity and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Severe weathering and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Peeling paint and structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Old and possibly moldy	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but potential issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New siding — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Paint job — Refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value ↑
• Both Roof inspection and repair — Ensures structural integrity and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pennington Gap

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #17149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,379

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Current HPI: 165.997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-29.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $27,500 TVRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $31,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $39,000 TVRMLS