635 Grizzly Bear Rd · Lely Resort, FL 34113

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 1995 Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Every evening, this is your view. From your private lakefront deck, the sky ignites in shades of amber, coral, and gold - reflected perfectly in the water below. This is not your typical manufactured home - it is a complete, top-to-bottom luxury transformation that will challenge everything you think you know about this style of living. Completely renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom lakefront home in the 55+ community of Tall Oaks of Naples. Approximately 1,182 sq ft of beautifully designed interior space plus a 462 sq ft premium lakefront composite deck - over 1,600 sq ft of total usable living space. Important for Florida buyers: This home features impact windows throughout and a 6-year-old r

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKEFRONT DECK
• IMPACT WINDOWS THROUGHOUT
• CUSTOM WHITE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER TILE BACKSPLASH
• PROFESSIONAL HOOD VENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,094/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,418
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $27,457
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34113

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $246	+0% $153	+5% $60	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $31	+0% $153	+5% $275	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $222	base $153	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Cheyenne Trl Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$3,500	$3.94	15d	1	0.34mi
11496 Sumter Grove Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,134	$2.00	15d	14	0.64mi
1435 Santiago Cir #2003 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,600	$1.98	24d	1	0.69mi
9022 Michael Cir Unit 2-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$3,500	$2.41	24d	1	0.80mi
9832 Venezia Cir #1013 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1454	$7,000	$4.81	24d	1	0.90mi
5296 Treetops Dr Unit 5296 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	866	$1,495	$1.73	24d	1	0.95mi
5339 Treetops Dr Unit 5339 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$2,250	$2.79	24d	1	0.97mi
5254 Treetops Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	878	$1,700	$1.94	24d	1	1.00mi
5300 Treetops Dr Unit I206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	878	$1,850	$2.11	24d	1	1.00mi
5300 Treetops Dr Unit 206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	866	$1,750	$2.02	24d	1	1.00mi
5361 Treetops Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,600	$1.99	22d	1	1.00mi
5294 Treetops Dr Unit I203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	866	$1,600	$1.85	15d	1	1.00mi
9834 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$5,350	$4.20	24d	2	1.00mi
9834 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$5,225	$4.11	15d	3	1.00mi
9830 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1165	$5,100	$4.38	24d	2	1.01mi
5379 Treetops Dr Unit M203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	24d	1	1.01mi
9815 Giaveno Ct #1234 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,000	$1.81	24d	1	1.02mi
5395 Treetops Dr Unit I Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	24d	1	1.02mi
5324 Treetops Dr Unit G-2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	878	$1,800	$2.05	15d	1	1.03mi
5385 Treetops Dr Unit I Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	24d	1	1.04mi
9826 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$4,500	$3.41	22d	3	1.05mi
9816 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1213	$3,375	$2.78	24d	2	1.06mi
9820 Giaveno Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$8,500	$6.90	24d	4	1.10mi
8161 Twelve Oaks Cir #512 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1066	$5,000	$4.69	24d	1	1.14mi
9175 Celeste Dr Unit 105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	24d	1	1.32mi
9187 Celeste Dr Unit 1073494P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1399	$2,979	$2.13	15d	1	1.33mi
9165 Celeste Dr Unit 3-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$6,500	$6.50	24d	1	1.34mi
6590 Beach Resort Dr Unit 305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1351	$4,500	$3.33	15d	1	1.38mi
9715 Acqua Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1184	$5,500	$4.64	24d	3	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricelisting id $269,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-02
    listed $269,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$6,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,971
• − Management: −$2,971
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$2,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$551
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This completely renovated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom lakefront home in the 55+ community of Tall Oaks of Naples is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The property's excellent condition and stunning lakefront view make it a top investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lely Resort

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #17981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,056
• Household income: $81,674
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 279.4232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $269,000 FSBO.com