52989 W Century Rd · Ak-Chin Village, AZ 85139

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2000 1.25 ac lot Est $407k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1345 sq ft home is ready to move in! Recently renovated inside and out! Interior and Exterior features include New Paint, New Quartz Countertops, New Vinyl Flooring Throughout, New SS Appliances, New Blinds, New Fixtures, Block Skirting and much much more! Also all new well equipment including pump. Close to the future I-11 corridor. Don't miss your chance to see this home today! Please note legal description is not correct as parent parcel is being divided. MLD Survey in documents tab and to be recorded prior to close of escrow. Parcel home is on to be 1.254 acres. Legal description to be: "A PARCEL OF LAND LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF SECTION 22, TOWNSHIP 6 SOUTH RANGE 2 EAST OF THE GILA AND SALT RIVER BASE AND MERIDIAN, PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA MORE PARTICULARLY DESCRIBED AS FOLLOWS: THE NORTH 331.09 FEET OF THE WEST HALF OF THE EAST HALF OF LOT 7 OF "HIDDEN VALLEY HILLS", ACCORDING TO THE PLAT OF RECORD IN THE OFFICE OF THE COUNTY RECORDER OF PINAL COUNTY ARIZONA, IN BOOK 9 OF MAPS, PAGE 23."

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Wide-open space
• Expansive property

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES
• EXPANSIVE PROPERTY
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• ACCESS TO NEARBY AMENITIES
• WIDE-OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Shared well for water; Septic system connected
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Natural desert front; Natural desert back; Mountain views; Horses allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Ak-Chin Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Stanfield Elementary School (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #864 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 403 students, 85% FRL); Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,639 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,232
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53040 W Whirly Bird Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$425,000	$303	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,239
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,651
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85139

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $334	+0% $272	+5% $210	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $194	+0% $272	+5% $350	+10% $428
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $328	base $272	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53713 W Pampas Grass Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,200	$1.39	3d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 479-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$922/yr (+$77/mo · 174.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$103
• After-tax cash flow: $3,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Ak-Chin Village

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 20,784
• Household income: $86,894
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Native American 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.22%
• Current HPI: 313.8539
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3900.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $220,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) $264,900 ARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $264,990 Public Records
• 2022-01-16 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-11-22 Listed $264,900 ARMLS
• 2020-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $905,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-04 Sold (MLS) $30,600 ARMLS
• 2013-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-01-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2013-01-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-01-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2013-01-10 Price Changed $30,600 ARMLS
• 2013-01-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-11-29 Listed $34,000 ARMLS
• 2008-02-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-07-18 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-01-22 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2007-01-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-06 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1998-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $5,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2021): $530 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.