1848 Ford St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 903 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1900 7,720 sqft lot Est $79k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in to this well maintained 3 bedroom home and enjoy the view of the St. Lawrence River from your 12' x 12' deck. The home's exterior has vinyl siding with a 5 year old metal roof.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• New furnace
• 7,720 sq ft lot

Tags

• ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VIEWS
• NEW FURNACE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• DURABLE METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Has a view; Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms; Gas water heater; Has heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($490/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $907 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $85k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,561
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Linden St	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	866 (-4%)	3mo	$75,000	$87	76
1805 Jay St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-0%)	13mo	$130,000	$144	70
1802 Montgomery St	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (+6%)	15mo	$195,000	$203	54
1617 Jay St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (+12%)	8mo	$65,000	$64	54
426 Clark St	0.49mi	3/1.0	966 (+7%)	18mo	$32,000	$33	50
1016 Jay St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+12%)	6mo	$99,000	$98	44
409 & 407 Pleasant Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+12%)	12mo	$47,000	$47	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,571
• Equity at exit: $29,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $24,056
• Equity at exit: $39,189

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,014/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-23
   listed $85,000 Active
2. 2019-10-15
   soldstatus $53,000
3. 2019-10-11
   soldstatus $53,000 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Move right in to this well maintained 3 bedroom home and enjoy the view of the St. Lawrence River from your 12' x 12' deck. The home's exterior has vinyl siding with a 5 year old metal roof.

4. 2019-05-13
   listed $54,500 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Move right in to this well maintained 3 bedroom home and enjoy the view of the St. Lawrence River from your 12' x 12' deck. The home's exterior has vinyl siding with a 5 year old metal roof.

5. 2004-06-30
   soldstatus $27,000
6. 1998-06-30
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,014 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,014 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,014
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+325.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $85,000 SLCMLS
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-11 Sold (MLS) $53,000 SLCMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listed $54,500 SLCMLS
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,014 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.