819 S Pike Ave · Bolivar, MO 65613

$89,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1883 0.50 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property features 5 bedrooms, 2 baths in a large 2 story older home on a large lot in site distance of the college. Lots of potential here for someone to put a full rehab on the house and grounds. Consider what adding quality work and unique features to this could do for its future income results in retaining or selling.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1883
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.0% in Bolivar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bolivar R-I (town): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #101 of 324 in MO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar Primary (589 students, 55% FRL); Bolivar Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #180 of 391 statewide, top 47%, 601 students, 48% FRL); Bolivar High (math 42% / reading 63%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 839 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.80%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $18,350
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $58,106
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65613

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $433/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $540	+0% $515	+5% $490	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $409	-5% $462	+0% $515	+5% $568	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $538	base $515	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 E Walnut St Unit NA Bolivar, MO	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $89,000
3. 2026-02-28
   price $94,000
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $103,000 Active
5. 2020-01-21
   listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $433 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$430/yr (+$36/mo · 99.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$433
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $4,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolivar R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905370
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,332
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4359
• State rank: #101 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bolivar

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #10664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar, MO
• County: Polk County · 17,666 people
• City population: 17,666
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 17,666
• Household income: $59,172
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 328.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.90%
• Current HPI: 251.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+18.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $94,000 SOMO
• 2026-01-16 Listed $103,000 SOMO
• 2020-01-21 Listed $75,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $433 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.