81 County Road 44880 · Blossom, TX 75416

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2008 3.00 ac lot Est $319k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in Blossom, TX in the highly desirable Prairiland School District! This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has an open floor plan and has recently had a new metal roof installed. The home sits on the corner of CR 44850 and CR 44880 giving the 3 acres of land ample road frontage and room to build another home if desired. Enjoy country living at its finest!!!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• 3 acres of land
• Ample road frontage

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• 3 ACRES OF LAND
• AMPLE ROAD FRONTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.8% in Blossom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,116 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,509 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 Daniel St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (+6%)	21mo	$339,900	$190	40
715 Daniel St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,483 (-12%)	11mo	$284,900	$192	39
745 Daniel St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (+6%)	22mo	$339,999	$190	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $42,243
• Equity at exit: $111,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $131,587
• Equity at exit: $204,453

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75416

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $147,287

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-107	+0% $-157	+5% $-206	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-206	+0% $-157	+5% $-108	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-112	base $-157	+0.5pp $-202	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $175,000 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Charming home located in Blossom, TX in the highly desirable Prairiland School District! This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home has an open floor plan and has recently had a new metal roof installed. The home sits on the corner of CR 44850 and CR 44880 giving the 3 acres of land ample road frontage and room to build another home if desired. Enjoy country living at its finest!!!

18. 2023-08-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,798 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,404/yr (+$117/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
• After-tax cash flow: $-679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairiland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835740
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,652
• Composite: 43.44/100
• National rank: #3010
• State rank: #167 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blossom

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #19760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Current HPI: 202.3527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,798 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.