941 Conewago Creek Rd · Manchester, PA 17345

$274,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1900 0.32 ac lot Est $439k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 4 bedroom, 2 bath appx. 2,000 SF Spacious fully renovated home on a very desirable fenced lot with mature trees and large spacious detached shop/garage! This home offers a wonderful updated kitchen with newly colored grey cabinetry, new granite countertops, shiplap backsplash, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Wonderful updated bath with new vanity and gold trimmed mirror, plus dazzling new lighting throughout! Cold Central air system on first floor and brand new roof! ABSOLUTE MUST SEE HOME!

Key facts

• New well
• First floor suite
• New gutters

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR SUITE
• CUSTOM WOOD-TOP VANITY
• TILED SHOWER SURROUND
• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#288 in PA, #2,532 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Northeastern York SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #119 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,216
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
485 Conewago Creek Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,187 (-3%)	13mo	$360,000	$165	48
85 Rooster Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,576 (+14%)	10mo	$500,000	$194	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,360
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $46,082
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17345

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,402/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,518

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
245 Hollyhock Dr Manchester, PA	4.0	2.5	3029	$3,295	$1.09	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $274,900 Active
3. 2026-02-02
   historical
4. 2026-01-21
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-13
   price $192,000
6. 2026-01-13
   status Active
7. 2025-10-16
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-10-06
   price $175,000
9. 2025-09-29
   price $195,000
10. 2025-09-22
    price $222,900
11. 2025-09-14
    listed $242,900 Active
12. 2023-04-18
    soldstatus $242,900
13. 2023-04-07
    soldstatus $242,900 Closed 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Lovely 4 bedroom, 2 bath appx. 2,000 SF Spacious fully renovated home on a very desirable fenced lot with mature trees and large spacious detached shop/garage! This home offers a wonderful updated kitchen with newly colored grey cabinetry, new granite countertops, shiplap backsplash, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Wonderful updated bath with new vanity and gold trimmed mirror, plus dazzling new lighting throughout! Cold Central air system on first floor and brand new roof! ABSOLUTE MUST SEE HOME!

14. 2022-10-18
    historical 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Lovely 4 bedroom, 2 bath appx. 2,000 SF Spacious fully renovated home on a very desirable fenced lot with mature trees and large spacious detached shop/garage! This home offers a wonderful updated kitchen with newly colored grey cabinetry, new granite countertops, shiplap backsplash, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Wonderful updated bath with new vanity and gold trimmed mirror, plus dazzling new lighting throughout! Cold Central air system on first floor and brand new roof! ABSOLUTE MUST SEE HOME!

15. 2022-10-18
    listed $249,900 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Lovely 4 bedroom, 2 bath appx. 2,000 SF Spacious fully renovated home on a very desirable fenced lot with mature trees and large spacious detached shop/garage! This home offers a wonderful updated kitchen with newly colored grey cabinetry, new granite countertops, shiplap backsplash, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Wonderful updated bath with new vanity and gold trimmed mirror, plus dazzling new lighting throughout! Cold Central air system on first floor and brand new roof! ABSOLUTE MUST SEE HOME!

16. 2022-10-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Lovely 4 bedroom, 2 bath appx. 2,000 SF Spacious fully renovated home on a very desirable fenced lot with mature trees and large spacious detached shop/garage! This home offers a wonderful updated kitchen with newly colored grey cabinetry, new granite countertops, shiplap backsplash, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Wonderful updated bath with new vanity and gold trimmed mirror, plus dazzling new lighting throughout! Cold Central air system on first floor and brand new roof! ABSOLUTE MUST SEE HOME!

17. 2022-10-10
    price $229,900
18. 2022-10-05
    historical
19. 2022-10-05
    listed $239,900 Active
20. 2022-09-16
    status Pending
21. 2022-09-16
    price $250,000
22. 2022-09-13
    listed $238,799 Active
23. 2022-06-13
    price $179,900
24. 2022-06-13
    historical
25. 2022-06-03
    listed $185,000 Active
26. 2003-04-28
    soldstatus $56,000
27. 1998-08-25
    soldstatus $92,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,402 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,402 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,402
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,163
• − Management: −$3,163
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable income: $3,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $6,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeastern York SD
• NCES district ID: 4217520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 47.06/100
• National rank: #2338
• State rank: #119 of 539 in PA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #2532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,106

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.05%
• Current HPI: 258.0184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+195.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $192,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $222,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $242,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $242,900 Public Records
• 2023-04-07 Sold (MLS) $242,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-18 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-10 Price Changed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-05 Listed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-16 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $238,799 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-13 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-03 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $92,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,402 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.