Plan 2154 Plan · San Antonio, TX 78253

$241,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,154 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Great room with dedicated dining area * Powder bath * Large walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Walk-in kitchen pantry * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * Dedicated laundry room * Front porch * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Game room * Flex Space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Close to popular restaurants * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Front porch
• Large walk-in closet
• Kitchen island

Tags

• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $241,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 2154)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Located at 7711 Inca Dove Way, San Antonio, TX 78253

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction home (Plan 2154); Living area approximately 2,154

🏗️ New construction. The $241,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,971.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,415 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.35%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,971
• List price: $241,995
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7537 Corral Smt	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,121 (-2%)	2mo	$299,990	$141	86
15009 Wildcat Basin	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,121 (-2%)	1mo	$310,990	$147	83
14755 Grey Egret Run	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,069 (-4%)	3mo	$324,500	$157	76
14760 Sweet Clover	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,120 (-2%)	1mo	$352,015	$166	74
7544 Corral Smt	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	2mo	$322,990	$143	74
7533 Corral Smt	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	3mo	$321,740	$142	73
7521 Corral Smt	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	4mo	$315,990	$140	72
7505 Corral Smt	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	4mo	$314,990	$139	71
14919 Wildcat Basin	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+5%)	1mo	$327,990	$145	71
7811 Rock Wren Fall	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,348 (+9%)	1mo	$274,745	$117	70
14747 Sweet Clover	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+1%)	5mo	$334,990	$155	67
7506 Guadalupe Peak	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,848 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$133	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-83,632
• Equity at exit: $42,937

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-134,652
• Equity at exit: $24,898

Cash invested: $80,632 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78253

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,320/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $216,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-295	-5% $-394	+0% $-494	+5% $-593	+10% $-693
Rent	-10% $-643	-5% $-569	+0% $-494	+5% $-419	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-349	-0.5pp $-420	base $-494	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,993
• Closing costs: $8,639
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7530 Fishbowl Ln San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1650	$1,950	$1.18	25d	1	0.12mi
7806 Rock Wren Fall San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,625	$1.05	6d	1	0.15mi
7510 Fishbowl Ln San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1650	$1,950	$1.18	25d	1	0.16mi
7525 Corral Smt San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,780	$1.26	0d	1	0.23mi
15620 Bonito Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,685	$1.05	6d	1	0.24mi
7919 Mariposa Mnr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2708	$2,450	$0.90	4d	1	0.25mi
7439 Corral Smt San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,745	$1.05	45d	1	0.26mi
7404 Cottontail Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$1,950	$0.83	5d	1	0.32mi
7404 Cottontail Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$1,950	$0.83	0d	1	0.32mi
14715 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2381	$1,897	$0.80	45d	1	0.35mi
7518 Boa Holw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	0.36mi
7535 Guadalupe Peak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,450	$0.98	6d	1	0.38mi
7435 Guadalupe Peak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,769	$1.26	45d	1	0.42mi
7410 Boa Holw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,789	$1.16	16d	1	0.43mi
14511 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	14d	1	0.44mi
14511 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	4d	1	0.44mi
14507 Gecko Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2805	$2,150	$0.77	25d	1	0.45mi
14755 Maple Ter San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,750	$1.18	18d	1	0.51mi
14477 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,895	$1.02	0d	1	0.54mi
15214 Ohare Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2563	$2,175	$0.85	5d	1	0.54mi
14537 Flatiron Clf San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.5	2501	$2,500	$1.00	16d	1	0.56mi
14523 Bonito Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,700	$1.06	19d	1	0.57mi
15321 Sherwin Oak San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,700	$0.96	45d	1	0.58mi
7915 Bonsai Bay San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2088	$1,795	$0.86	45d	1	0.62mi
14685 Maple Ter San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.63mi
14374 Palm Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	25d	1	0.64mi
15223 Liberty Sta San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,795	$1.16	22d	1	0.67mi
15223 Liberty Sta San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	0.67mi
14644 Maple Ter San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,799	$0.99	45d	1	0.71mi
14338 Palm Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,779	$0.97	45d	1	0.71mi
14371 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,769	$1.06	45d	1	0.73mi
14367 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,689	$1.20	25d	1	0.74mi
14319 Palm Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,769	$1.25	16d	1	0.75mi
14347 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,789	$0.98	45d	1	0.78mi
14303 Palm Rdg Unit 3294 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,703	$1.21	0d	1	0.78mi
14311 Gila Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$1,850	$0.97	25d	1	0.79mi
14339 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$2,099	$1.10	25d	1	0.79mi
7438 Asp Pt San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,749	$1.24	16d	1	0.81mi
7810 Asp Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1912	$1,875	$0.98	0d	1	0.84mi
14303 Gunsight Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,750	$1.10	25d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $241,995 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,995 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,995 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,995 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,995 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,995 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $241,995 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,995 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $241,995 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $241,995 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $241,995 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,995 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $241,995 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $241,995 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $241,995 489-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $251,995 Active 489-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,131
• − Property taxes: −$4,320
• − Insurance: −$1,440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$8,377
• Taxable loss: −$11,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great floor plan and is located near top-rated schools and entertainment, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Swimming pool — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Playground — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Nearby entertainment and leisure — Enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Swimming pool — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Playground — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Nearby entertainment and leisure — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,282
• Household income: $106,373
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1496.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 34% Two or more races 27% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.92%
• Current HPI: 199.1827
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B