970 Ogden St · Jasper, TX 75951

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,345 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

0.48 ac lot $68/sqft · 10% below area Est $178k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on nearly half an acre right in the heart of Jasper. Offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and character, this home features expansive living areas ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Step inside to discover beautiful original hardwood floors that add warmth and timeless appeal throughout the home. Natural light fills the generous living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere you'll love coming home to every day. Outside, enjoy your own private retreat with a small deck overlooking an above-ground pool—perfect for cooling off during those warm Texas days or hosting weekend gatherings with friends and fami

Key facts

• Large lot
• Above-ground pool
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• LARGE LOT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Located on a 0.48-acre lot
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Wood flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.49%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,914
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -10.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
631 N Main St	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,546 (+9%)	20mo	$73,000	$29	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,451
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $36,677
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,944/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 N Peachtree St Jasper, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $160,000 Active 952-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,944
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $4,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $160,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $160,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,944 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.