161 Bear Flag Rd · Temelec, CA 95476

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 142 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition $226/sqft · 18% above area Est $275k · 18% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully upgraded home in the Seven Flags 55+ community of Sonoma, offering vineyard and mountain views and a quiet cul-de-sac location. Attractively landscaped with inviting outdoor spaces. The living/dining room combination offers an open layout with wood laminate flooring and carpet. A separate family room opens to the kitchen, which includes a casual dining counter. The large primary bedroom features an attached bath with separate tub and shower. One porch has been converted into a sunroom (approx. 8' x 15'), providing versatile added indoor space. Seven Flags of Sonoma offers a pool, clubhouse, organized activities, and well-maintained common areas, conveniently located near Sonoma Plaza, shopping, dining, and wine country amenities. Space rent: $967.36.

Key facts

• Vineyard views
• Landscaped
• Cut-de-sac location

Tags

• VINEYARD VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CUT-DE-SAC LOCATION
• LANDSCAPED
• FAMILY ROOM
• CASUAL DINING COUNTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#811 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: 18.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46 International Blvd	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$131	97
106 Drake Mews # 106	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$288,000	$200	87
282 Paseo Bolivar	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	4mo	$365,000	$251	83
162 Bear Flag Rd	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	7mo	$262,000	$171	82
145 Bear Flag Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$289,880	$189	72
14 Fort Ross Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$288,000	$214	71
166 Seven Flags Cir	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$285,000	$212	70
123 Bear Flag Rd	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$200,000	$130	70
42 Cabrillo Plz	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	10mo	$312,000	$191	66
132 Bear Flag Rd	0.18mi	2/3.0	1,617 (+12%)	4mo	$437,750	$271	64
230 E Seven Flags Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,580 (+10%)	9mo	$159,950	$101	63
258 English Flag Way	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$278,500	$207	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-39,082
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-35,074
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $325,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,000 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-03-11
    price $339,000 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded home in the Seven Flags 55+ community of Sonoma, offering vineyard and mountain views and a quiet cul-de-sac location. Attractively landscaped with inviting outdoor spaces. The living/dining room combination offers an open layout with wood laminate flooring and carpet. A separate family room opens to the kitchen, which includes a casual dining counter. The large primary bedroom features an attached bath with separate tub and shower. One porch has been converted into a sunroom (approx. 8' x 15'), providing versatile added indoor space. Seven Flags of Sonoma offers a pool, clubhouse, organized activities, and well-maintained common areas, conveniently located near Sonoma Plaza, shopping, dining, and wine country amenities. Space rent: $967.36.

19. 2026-01-27
    listed $349,000 Active 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded home in the Seven Flags 55+ community of Sonoma, offering vineyard and mountain views and a quiet cul-de-sac location. Attractively landscaped with inviting outdoor spaces. The living/dining room combination offers an open layout with wood laminate flooring and carpet. A separate family room opens to the kitchen, which includes a casual dining counter. The large primary bedroom features an attached bath with separate tub and shower. One porch has been converted into a sunroom (approx. 8' x 15'), providing versatile added indoor space. Seven Flags of Sonoma offers a pool, clubhouse, organized activities, and well-maintained common areas, conveniently located near Sonoma Plaza, shopping, dining, and wine country amenities. Space rent: $967.36.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,123
• − Management: −$3,123
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$1,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $4,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Seven Flags 55+ community is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed for a fresh look and increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Temelec

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #811
• US rank: #22885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temelec, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $339,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $349,000 BAREIS