40708 Pessi Rd · Magnolia, TX 77354

$267,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · Land · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

Key facts

• Large covered patio
• Abundant storage
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFICATION
• QUALITY CRAFTSMANSHIP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: DSLD
• HOA & community: Community managed by Lead Association Management; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway parking
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; Kitchen and family room combined layout; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen and dining combined layout; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $267,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,095.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-819/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,953 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,095
• List price: $267,990
• Delta: 1.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $134,481
• Equity at exit: $238,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $389,372
• Equity at exit: $515,021

Cash invested: $74,227 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $253,031

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $7	+0% $-68	+5% $-143	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-151	+0% $-68	+5% $15	+10% $98
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $-1	base $-68	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,274
• Closing costs: $7,953
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40700 Pessi Rd Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,100	$1.69	45d	1	0.02mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 4292 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,824	$1.61	12d	1	1.27mi
4255 Magnolia Village Dr Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,784	$1.58	0d	1	1.27mi
4225 Magnolia Village Dr Magnolia, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,992	$2.00	0d	31	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: watergasinternet

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $267,990 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $267,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $267,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $267,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $267,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,990 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $267,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $267,990 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $267,990 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $267,990 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $267,990 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $267,990 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $267,990 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $267,990 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $267,990 Active 976-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    historical
17. 2026-03-17
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    * Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

18. 2026-03-03
    historical

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    * Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

19. 2026-02-18
    listed $267,990 Active
20. 2026-02-18
    historical
21. 2025-10-28
    listed $267,990 Active
22. 2025-10-28
    historical
23. 2025-08-30
    price $267,990

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    * Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

24. 2025-08-30
    price $267,990

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    * Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

25. 2025-05-26
    listed $270,535 Active
26. 2025-05-21
    listed $270,535 Active

    Show marketing remark (862 chars)

    * Receive initial rates as low as 3.99% (6.788% APR) on FHA, RD, and VA loans with up to $12,000 towards rate buydown or closing costs. Plus a FREE Refrigerator! Must Close by 9/30/26 - Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for more details about current incentive. * This RUTHERFORD III H has an open floor plan with an upgraded luxury vinyl plank flooring in living room and all wet areas, stainless appliances with a gas range, undermount cabinet lighting + more. Special features amenities for this plan include granite counters with undermount sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, dual vanities, walk-in closet and tiled shower with semi-frameless door in owner's suite, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, LED lighting throughout, Low E tilt-in windows, tankless gas water heater, structured wiring panel box, radiant barrier roof sheathing, covered patio and much more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,904 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,993/yr (+$249/mo · 156.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,849
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,712
• Taxable loss: −$5,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $267,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $267,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $267,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $267,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $267,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-26 Listed $270,535 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $270,535 Zillow

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,911 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.