822 Olivo St · Mathis, TX 78368

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1962 0.51 ac lot $73/sqft · 20% below area Est $88k · 20% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home ready for your vision and updates. Situated on a generous double lot allowing for an additional source of income or just room to spread out or build a shop on. The home is in need of a few repairs and cosmetic updates, making it ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build some equity. Metal rood installed 2019. MOTIVATED SELLER will look at all offers.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Source of income
• Repairs and updates

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• SOURCE OF INCOME
• REPAIRS AND UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#622 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.24%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,713
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -20.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
918 N Live Oak St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+8%)	8mo	$22,320	$21	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $33,781
• Equity at exit: $37,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $86,254
• Equity at exit: $61,904

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,526/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $69,900 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home ready for your vision and updates. Situated on a generous double lot allowing for an additional source of income or just room to spread out or build a shop on. The home is in need of a few repairs and cosmetic updates, making it ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build some equity. Metal rood installed 2019. MOTIVATED SELLER will look at all offers.

17. 2026-03-20
    price $75,000 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home ready for your vision and updates. Situated on a generous double lot allowing for an additional source of income or just room to spread out or build a shop on. The home is in need of a few repairs and cosmetic updates, making it ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build some equity. Metal rood installed 2019. MOTIVATED SELLER will look at all offers.

18. 2026-02-19
    listed $80,000 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home ready for your vision and updates. Situated on a generous double lot allowing for an additional source of income or just room to spread out or build a shop on. The home is in need of a few repairs and cosmetic updates, making it ideal project for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build some equity. Metal rood installed 2019. MOTIVATED SELLER will look at all offers.

19. 2022-07-09
    historical
20. 2022-03-07
    price $99,900
21. 2022-02-21
    price $105,000
22. 2022-02-01
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,526
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $2,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mathis

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #11847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mathis, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $69,900 CBMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $75,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $80,000 CBMLS
• 2022-07-09 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2022-03-07 Price Changed $99,900 CBMLS
• 2022-02-21 Price Changed $105,000 CBMLS
• 2022-02-01 Listed $110,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,526 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.