SULLIVAN Plan · Fairhope, AL 36532

$301,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out the Sullivan, our brand-new floor plan that is now available in Cottonwood Estates, in Fairhope, Alabama. With multiple elevations to choose from in this community, you will love the curb appeal of this home. The Sullivan features 4-bedrooms, 2-bathrooms and 1,410 square feet of space. It also includes a 1-car garage. As you enter, the inviting foyer leads you past the bedrooms and into a spacious kitchen with an abundance of natural light. The kitchen is equipped with modern cabinets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, granite countertops, a pantry for extra storage, and plenty of counter space for all your cooking needs.

Key facts

• Modern cabinets
• Spacious kitchen
• Walk in closet

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MODERN CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $301,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,450.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($372/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 859 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,253 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,450
• List price: $301,800
• Delta: -0.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16255 Tigris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,410 (0%)	6mo	$304,461	$216	86
16313 Tigris Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,417 (+0%)	9mo	$295,450	$209	85
16221 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,417 (+0%)	9mo	$302,961	$214	82
16145 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	1mo	$332,448	$230	81
16348 Tigris Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	10mo	$290,675	$201	77
16250 Tigris Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+1%)	8mo	$301,037	$211	77
16817 Tigris Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-9%)	3mo	$295,424	$231	74
16267 Tigris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	10mo	$269,000	$179	72
16207 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	10mo	$312,036	$207	71
16199 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	11mo	$307,400	$204	70
16291 Tigris Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-9%)	7mo	$289,900	$226	67
16233 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-9%)	10mo	$276,900	$216	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,454
• Equity at exit: $45,394

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-39,170
• Equity at exit: $26,323

Cash invested: $85,246 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,900 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 859
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,703 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,567/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,663

Max offer price $304,450

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $136	+0% $31	+5% $-74	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-76	+0% $31	+5% $138	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $108	base $31	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,113
• Closing costs: $9,134
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	62d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $301,400

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: New construction plan (SULLIVAN)
• Exterior features: Street address: 11980 Volga Dr, Fairhope AL 36532

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: SULLIVANLiving area listed as 1,410 (for reference)

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $301,800 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $301,800 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $301,800 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $301,800 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $301,800 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $301,800 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $301,800 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $301,800 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $301,800 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $301,800 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $301,800 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $301,800 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $301,800 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $301,800 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $301,800 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $301,800 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $301,800 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $301,800 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $301,800 Active 31 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $301,800 Active 30 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $301,800 Active 29 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $301,800 Active 28 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $301,800 Active 27 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $301,800 Active 26 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $301,800 Active 25 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    pricedays on market $301,800 Active 24 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $301,400 Active 23 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $301,400 Active 22 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $301,400 Active 21 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $301,400 Active 20 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $301,400 Active 19 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $301,400 Active 18 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $301,400 Active 17 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $301,400 Active 16 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $301,400 Active 15 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $301,400 Active 14 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $301,400 Active 13 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $301,400 Active 11 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $301,400 Active 9 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $301,400 Active 8 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $301,400 Active 6 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $301,400 Active 5 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $301,400 Active 4 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $301,400 Active 3 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $301,400 Active 2 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    remarks 699-char remark
47. 2026-06-14
    listed $301,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,054
• − Property taxes: −$4,567
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,594
• − Management: −$2,594
• − Depreciation: −$8,857
• Taxable loss: −$4,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Sullivan floor plan in Fairhope, Alabama, is move-in ready with good condition and curb appeal. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary J Larry Newton School C+ AL #74/627 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle Fairhope Middle School A- AL #3/257 Nat'l #1,272/14,009 High Fairhope High School F AL #22/305 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 15% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $301,400

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 parking space total)
• Home design: New construction plan (SULLIVAN)
• Exterior features: Street address: 11980 Volga Dr, Fairhope AL 36532

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: SULLIVANLiving area listed as 1,410 (for reference)