Mansion 412SC Wellington Estates Plan · Murrysville, PA 15632

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 155 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for a home close to nature? Wellington Estates is in the perfect location for country living. You'll find classic 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom homes in a friendly and calm neighborhood featuring a wonderful playground for the residents. Our homes are affordable and come in a variety of floorplans featuring wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, and primary suites. So start your search today and find your future home at Wellington Estates. Our manufactured home community is located in Export, Pennsylvania, a historic coal mining town with a small-town feel and close to Murrysville. You'll have nature in your backyard and local shopping nearby. Hate driving long distances when you crave a big city? Have no fear, Pittsburgh is a quick 30-minute drive away. Wellington Estates is located in the Greater Latrobe District Schools District.

Key facts

• Primary suites
• Listed 155 days

Tags

• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• PRIMARY SUITES
• LOCAL SHOPPING NEARBY
• QUICK DRIVE TO PITTSBURGH

🏗️ New construction. The $97,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $27,171.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.7% vs local median 1.9% in Murrysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#472 in PA, #4,346 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kiski Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #247 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kiski Area South Primary Sch (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 289 students, 47% FRL); Kiski Area Ihs (math 20% / reading 56%, grade F, #283 of 512 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 56% FRL); Kiski Area Hs (math 58%, 1,126 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $188 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $815 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.93%
• DSCR: 8.69
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $27,171
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: 257.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Evergreen Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-7%)	12mo	$40,000	$36	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $65,450
• Equity at exit: $4,051

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.32×
• Total profit: $147,007
• Equity at exit: $2,349

Cash invested: $7,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15632

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $1,096

Break-even live

Break-even rent $238

Max offer price $27,171

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,115	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,087	+10% $1,078
Rent	-10% $968	-5% $1,032	+0% $1,096	+5% $1,161	+10% $1,225
Rate	-1.0pp $1,110	-0.5pp $1,103	base $1,096	+0.5pp $1,089	+1.0pp $1,082

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,793
• Closing costs: $815
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-01-17
    listed $97,000 Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Are you looking for a home close to nature? Wellington Estates is in the perfect location for country living. You'll find classic 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom homes in a friendly and calm neighborhood featuring a wonderful playground for the residents. Our homes are affordable and come in a variety of floorplans featuring wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, and primary suites. So start your search today and find your future home at Wellington Estates. Our manufactured home community is located in Export, Pennsylvania, a historic coal mining town with a small-town feel and close to Murrysville. You'll have nature in your backyard and local shopping nearby. Hate driving long distances when you crave a big city? Have no fear, Pittsburgh is a quick 30-minute drive away. Wellington Estates is located in the Greater Latrobe District Schools District.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,522
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$136
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$790
• Taxable income: $13,529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,247
• After-tax cash flow: $9,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates across multiple systems and areas, indicating a moderate level of rehab is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — No photos of kitchen
• Major Bathroom fixtures — No photos of bathrooms
• Major Exterior siding — No photos of exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of windows
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping — No photos of landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Fix bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and appearance
• Both Repair exterior siding — Aesthetic repairs improve curb appeal
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances comfort and appearance
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and appearance
• Both Service HVAC/mechanicals — A functional HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · No photos of exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · No photos of landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Fix bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Repair exterior siding — Aesthetic repairs improve curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and appearance ↑
• Both Service HVAC/mechanicals — A functional HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kiski Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212840
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,407
• Composite: 39.72/100
• National rank: #3900
• State rank: #247 of 539 in PA

Livability — Murrysville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #472
• US rank: #4346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,363
• Population (ZIP): 8,886

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 342,555 people
• By 2030: 331,717 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 304,976 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 277,444 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 224,607 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 171,084 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+31.3 2012: R+23.7 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.05%
• Current HPI: 208.868
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $97,000 Zillow