154 Milrace Dr · East Rochester, NY 14445

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 927 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1972 2,614 sqft lot Est $174k · 8% under $270/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this STUNNING, FULLY RENOVATED 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo/townhome in the charming Linden East community. LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING IN WALKABLE EAST ROCHESTER VILLAGE! This move-in-ready home, filled with NATURAL LIGHT features a BRAND NEW KITCHEN (2026) with plenty of cabinets, breakfast bar & new refrigerator, a beautifully UPDATED BATHROOM, all new hardwood-laminate flooring, STACKABLE WASHER & DRYER and NEW LIGHTING throughout. The OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT connects the kitchen, dining, and family room areas. 1-STORY (2nd floor) END-UNIT with a private deck, DESIGNATED GARAGE SPACE (shared) and private storage unit! Linden East Community provides easy access to shops, restaur

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New kitchen
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• STACKABLE WASHER AND DRYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed: cats and dogs (limits may apply)
• HOA & community: Kenrick association with a monthly fee of $270 covering common area maintenance, common area insurance, insurance, structure maintenance, reserve fund, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one assigned underground parking space and garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity available with circuit breakers; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing/resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen and breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4 (includes living room)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Open living/dining area; Window treatments; Drapes; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (6.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in East Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#155 in NY, #2,400 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D.
• East Rochester Union Free School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #371 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $149,809 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,276
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Apple St	0.24mi	2/1.0	888 (-4%)	12mo	$165,000	$186	72
413 Garfield Ave	0.30mi	2/1.5	960 (+4%)	14mo	$195,000	$203	67
121 W Filbert St	0.64mi	2/1.5	876 (-6%)	0mo	$165,000	$188	59
2 Upper Cres	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (+1%)	6mo	$185,000	$197	54
318 Magnolia Ave	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,060 (+14%)	21mo	$228,000	$215	49
—	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,032 (+11%)	20mo	$145,000	$141	44
4 Woodneath Cres	0.71mi	2/1.0	800 (-14%)	5mo	$150,000	$188	40
604 Grant St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	832 (-10%)	9mo	$80,000	$96	37
116 W Elm St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (+15%)	12mo	$218,000	$205	35
403 W Elm St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	24mo	$241,000	$228	21
2 Forest Rd	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	800 (-14%)	22mo	$145,000	$181	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-29,389
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-29,629
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14445

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,797/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$270
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $149,809

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-12	+0% $-57	+5% $-102	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-121	+0% $-57	+5% $6	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-16	base $-57	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 W Commercial St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	640	$1,100	$1.72	44d	1	0.48mi
126 West Ave Unit UPPER East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,500	$1.83	19d	1	0.59mi
120 Brebeuf Dr Penfield, NY	2.0	1.0	763	$1,365	$1.79	4d	6	0.59mi
108 W Filbert St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	3d	1	0.65mi
214 E Spruce St East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,750	$1.80	44d	1	0.81mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	3d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $270 · $3,240/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $159,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-21
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,250 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 25.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,797
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $99/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Rochester Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609930
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,308
• Composite: 43.23/100
• National rank: #3058
• State rank: #371 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Rochester

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #2400

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 7,529
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,529
• Household income: $73,625
• Rent vs Own: 40.2% rent · 59.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.80%
• Current HPI: 273.7033
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,797 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.