5393 140th St · Live Oak, FL 32094

$154,850

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2003 18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living on 18.08 acres with a manufactured home. The property features a large barn perfect for storage or hobbies, along with plenty of open land for farming, recreation or future expansion. Older single wide on the property used for storage. The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses.

Key facts

• Open land
• Future expansion
• Large barn

Tags

• LARGE BARN
• OPEN LAND
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING
• FUTURE EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-202/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#448 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,557 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,570
• Equity at exit: $69,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $64,053
• Equity at exit: $107,304

Cash invested: $43,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32094

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $151,883

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $27	+0% $-17	+5% $-61	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-67	+0% $-17	+5% $33	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $23	base $-17	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,712
• Closing costs: $4,646
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,850 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,850 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $154,850 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,850 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,850 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,850 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $154,850 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   price $154,850 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living on 18.08 acres with a manufactured home. The property features a large barn perfect for storage or hobbies, along with plenty of open land for farming, recreation or future expansion. Older single wide on the property used for storage. The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses.

9. 2026-04-08
   listed $163,000 Active 328-char remark

   Show marketing remark (328 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living on 18.08 acres with a manufactured home. The property features a large barn perfect for storage or hobbies, along with plenty of open land for farming, recreation or future expansion. Older single wide on the property used for storage. The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses.

10. 1998-09-01
    soldstatus $147,500
11. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,674
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$4,505
• Taxable loss: −$2,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suwannee
• NCES district ID: 1201830
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,785
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4503
• State rank: #52 of 73 in FL

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #8100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,929

Population outlook (Suwannee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,226 people
• By 2030: 45,833 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 46,631 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 46,544 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 43,635 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 34,318 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Suwannee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.3% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.3 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+76.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $154,850 NFMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $163,000 NFMLS
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $147,500 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,680 · +122.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.