11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$266,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $163/sqft · at area comps Est $269k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Luxe owner suite

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,296 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,469
• List price: $266,990
• Delta: -0.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,635 (0%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	100
11688 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,635 (0%)	1mo	$262,490	$161	95
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-4%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	93
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-2%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	89
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+7%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	77
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+1%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	77
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-2%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	75
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-14%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	74
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-13%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	73
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-14%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	73
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-13%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	62
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-13%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $130,904
• Equity at exit: $240,526

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $381,995
• Equity at exit: $518,703

Cash invested: $74,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,400
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$334 /mo · $4,005/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $247,056

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,748
• Closing costs: $8,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.39mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.78mi
32626A Karen Dr Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $266,990 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-17
   listed $276,990 Active 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   The Cupertino II Floor Plan - This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. All three bedrooms are nestled at the back of the home for enhanced privacy and comfort, including the luxe owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,956
• − Property taxes: −$4,005
• − Insurance: −$1,335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,767
• Taxable loss: −$6,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and low-maintenance design. It is move-in ready with a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $276,990 HARMLS