75 Jay Mccollum Ln · Chesterfield, TN 38351

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1995 0.53 ac lot Est $80k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a peaceful country living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home near Natchez Trace State Park. Located less than a mile from Pin Oak Lake, you'll have easy access to scenic hiking and horseback riding trails, camping, picnic areas, and several lakes perfect for fishing or outdoor recreation. Inside, you'll find fresh updates throughout, including newly built countertops and cabinets in both the kitchen and bathrooms, fresh interior paint, and new flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. The HVAC system is less than 3 years old, and the roof was replaced one year ago, offering peace of mind for years to come. Step outside to a new back deck, ideal for relaxin

Key facts

• New back deck
• Storm shelter
• Newly built cabinets

Tags

• NEAR NATCHEZ TRACE STATE PARK
• EASY ACCESS TO HIKING TRAILS
• NEWLY BUILT COUNTERTOPS
• NEWLY BUILT CABINETS
• NEW BACK DECK
• STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; Carport for 2 vehicles
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available (220 volts); Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Asphalt road frontage (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer; Electric cooktop; Electric water heater; Microwave; Washer; Vinyl flooring; Fire alarm; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#170 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Henderson County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #41 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
75 Jay Mccollum Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	0mo	$80,000	$82	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-2,857
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $10,564
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38351

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $186	+0% $158	+5% $131	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $123	+0% $158	+5% $194	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $179	base $158	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $80,000
3. 2026-03-04
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $1,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 4701800
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,119
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7114
• State rank: #41 of 139 in TN

Livability — Chesterfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #14501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,958

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,057 people
• By 2030: 27,730 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 26,664 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,081 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 20,747 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 15,603 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.8% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.9pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+42.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.82%
• Current HPI: 297.0387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $80,000 CWTAR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $85,000 CWTAR

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $68 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.