11311 Altoona Ave · Bayonet Point, FL 34654

$105,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1959 5,750 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY!!! 2 Bed 1 Bath less than 1/4 acre in NO FLOOD, NO HOA. Monthly rental income was 1500 dollars. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; Faces east; Entry on main level
• Construction: Metal siding; Other roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.13-acre wooded parcel
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Schrader Elementary School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 82% FRL); Bayonet Point Middle School (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 737 students, 84% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.75%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,108
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $16,424
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $391	+0% $361	+5% $332	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $309	+0% $361	+5% $414	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $388	base $361	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $105,000 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-03-07
    price $110,000 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY!!! 2 Bed 1 Bath less than 1/4 acre in NO FLOOD, NO HOA. Monthly rental income was 1500 dollars. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

14. 2026-03-07
    price $110,000

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY!!! 2 Bed 1 Bath less than 1/4 acre in NO FLOOD, NO HOA. Monthly rental income was 1500 dollars. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

15. 2026-03-06
    listed $90,000 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY!!! 2 Bed 1 Bath less than 1/4 acre in NO FLOOD, NO HOA. Monthly rental income was 1500 dollars. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $90,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY!!! 2 Bed 1 Bath less than 1/4 acre in NO FLOOD, NO HOA. Monthly rental income was 1500 dollars. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$673
• After-tax cash flow: $3,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $110,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $90,000 HCAR

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,115 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.