308 N Guadalupe St · Camp Wood, TX 78833

$114,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1997 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy small town living in this newly refurbished 3 bedroom two bath mobile home . .An older home also comes with the property. 3 large city lots on the corner of Guadalupe Street and E Seventh Street. .. Only a short distance to town and the beautiful Nueces River for summer fun.

Key facts

• Newly refurbished
• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1997

Tags

• NEWLY REFURBISHED
• SHORT DISTANCE TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-88/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,241 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nueces Canyon CISD (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #596 of 1,141 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nueces Canyon El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 144 students, 60% FRL); Nueces Canyon Jh/Hs (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 104 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($788 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Real County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $114k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,693 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $17,592
• Equity at exit: $55,848

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $58,139
• Equity at exit: $89,822

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78833

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $112,698

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $25	+0% $-7	+5% $-40	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-85	-5% $-46	+0% $-7	+5% $32	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $22	base $-7	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $114,000 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,000 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,000 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $114,000 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-06-10
    days on market $114,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 201 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 200 DOM
19. 2025-11-12
    listed $114,000 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Enjoy small town living in this newly refurbished 3 bedroom two bath mobile home . .An older home also comes with the property. 3 large city lots on the corner of Guadalupe Street and E Seventh Street. .. Only a short distance to town and the beautiful Nueces River for summer fun.

20. 2024-07-16
    price $69,000
21. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-07
    soldstatus $38,063
23. 2011-01-31
    soldstatus $35,900
24. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
25. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
26. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
27. 2008-05-01
    listed $44,900
28. 2008-05-01
    listed $44,900
29. 2008-05-01
    listed $44,900
30. 2004-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$947
• − Management: −$947
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable loss: −$2,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$486
• After-tax cash flow: $397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nueces Canyon CISD
• NCES district ID: 4833240
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,273
• Composite: 39.34/100
• National rank: #8162
• State rank: #596 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Camp Wood

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1241
• US rank: #21699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Wood, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,173

Population outlook (Real County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,289 people
• By 2030: 3,225 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 3,093 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 2,948 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 2,678 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 2,196 · -33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Real

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.1% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -53.0pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.8 2012: R+62.6 2008: R+53.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Current HPI: 83.3756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+153.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Listed $114,000 KVMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $69,000 KVMLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $38,063 Public Records
• 2011-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $35,900 Public Records
• 2011-01-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-01-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-01-26 Sold (MLS) — KVMLS
• 2008-05-01 Listed $44,900 LERA
• 2008-05-01 Listed $44,900 LERA
• 2008-05-01 Listed $44,900 KVMLS
• 2004-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.