107 Arlington Ave · Natchez, MS 39120

$319,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1900 0.33 ac lot Est $425k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CHARMING VICTORIAN HOME IN THE HEART OF DOWNTOWN NATCHEZ. Step back in time while enjoying modern comfort in this lovely home built approximately 1900. This beautiful 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths and is full of character and classic architectural details. The exterior welcomes you with a spacious wrap-around porch supported by a beautiful verandah and classic white columns, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the charm of the neighborhood. The property sits on two spacious lots and features a 4-car covered parking area, while the front yard is enclosed by a charming white picket fence. Inside, you will find high ceilings, wood floors, and elaborate woodwork that highlights the

Key facts

• Wood floors
• White picket fence
• Wrap-around porch

Tags

• WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• WHITE PICKET FENCE
• HIGH CEILINGS
• WOOD FLOORS
• ELABORATE WOODWORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $425,246
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Main St	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,900 (+2%)	13mo	$349,000	$120	67
113 S Doctor M.l.k. St	0.26mi	4/3.0	3,092 (+8%)	5mo	$225,000	$73	62
207 S Rankin St	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,496 (-12%)	6mo	$449,000	$180	48
307 Winchester Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,963 (+4%)	15mo	$395,000	$133	45
10 Audubon Pl	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,484 (-13%)	8mo	$435,000	$175	42
408 S Union St	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,118 (+9%)	10mo	$465,000	$149	38
4 Audubon Pl	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,510 (-12%)	18mo	$445,000	$177	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-15,899
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $32,389
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,777/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,790

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Devereaux Dr Natchez, MS	3.0	2.0	4000	$3,500	$0.88	43d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $319,000 Active
3. 2025-02-05
   historical
4. 2025-02-04
   historical
5. 2024-11-08
   price $329,000
6. 2024-08-05
   listed $359,000 Active
7. 2024-08-05
   listed $329,000
8. 2024-07-31
   historical
9. 2023-06-20
   listed $364,000
10. 2023-03-13
    soldstatus
11. 2022-09-02
    listed $339,000
12. 2022-08-24
    historical
13. 2021-08-24
    listed $309,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,777 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,777 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,777
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $1,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $6,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-11 Listed $319,000 MLSU
• 2025-02-05 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-02-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $329,000 MLSU
• 2024-08-05 Listed $329,000 MLSU
• 2024-08-05 Listed $359,000 MLSU
• 2024-07-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-06-20 Listed $364,000 MLSU
• 2023-03-13 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-09-02 Listed $339,000 MLSU
• 2022-08-24 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-08-24 Listed $309,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,777 · +26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.