Lancia's Cottage Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46845

$303,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,615 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Poor condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia Homes Cottage floorplan has a Craftsman style or a Modern look! This home with 2,615 sq. ft. 4 Bedroom's, 2.5 Bath's features an open floorplan with an office, Laundry Room and a bonus Loft area for 2nd living. Large owner suite has a cathedral or tray ceiling, walk-in closet and Owner Suite Bath with shower. Lots of room to spread out in. * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 300 days

🏗️ New construction. The $303,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $452,225.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Northwest Allen County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #25 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.19%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,225
• List price: $303,900
• Delta: -32.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 Grantham Psge	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,917 (+12%)	2mo	$610,000	$209	74
377 Carrara Cv	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,444 (-6%)	2mo	$449,900	$184	71
11421 Trails North Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,678 (+2%)	4mo	$349,900	$131	70
1021 Wingate Dr	0.46mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,661 (+2%)	1mo	$270,000	$101	66
12124 Wellingham Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,452 (-6%)	3mo	$330,000	$135	64
516 Grantham Psge	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,934 (+12%)	4mo	$610,000	$208	63
606 Grantham Psge	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,259 (-14%)	4mo	$557,000	$247	61
11718 Grand River Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-13%)	1mo	$371,828	$163	61
280 Montalcino Run	0.42mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,340 (-10%)	1mo	$440,000	$188	57
12057 Falcatta Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,241 (-14%)	1mo	$429,320	$192	56
210 Dittons Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,264 (-13%)	4mo	$387,000	$171	56
11510 Trails North Dr	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,716 (+4%)	7mo	$300,000	$110	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-112,823
• Equity at exit: $67,428

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-98,508
• Equity at exit: $39,100

Cash invested: $126,623 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46845

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$565 /mo · $6,783/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,019

Max offer price $327,100

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,056
• Closing costs: $13,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11111 Kings Xing Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	3700	$3,600	$0.97	21d	1	0.71mi
562 Highfields Cv Fort Wayne, IN	4.0	2.5	2413	$2,700	$1.12	21d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $303,900 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $303,900 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $303,900 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $303,900 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $303,900 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $303,900 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $303,900 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $303,900 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,900 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $303,900 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,900 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $303,900 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,600 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,600 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $298,600 Active 281 DOM
16. 2025-08-22
    listed $298,600 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia Homes Cottage floorplan has a Craftsman style or a Modern look! This home with 2,615 sq. ft. 4 Bedroom's, 2.5 Bath's features an open floorplan with an office, Laundry Room and a bonus Loft area for 2nd living. Large owner suite has a cathedral or tray ceiling, walk-in closet and Owner Suite Bath with shower. Lots of room to spread out in. * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,332
• − Property taxes: −$6,783
• − Insurance: −$2,261
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,808
• − Management: −$2,808
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$13,156
• Taxable loss: −$18,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,476
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, fresh siding and paint, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a good condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image suggests significant damage.
• Major exterior siding — The siding appears worn and faded.
• Major exterior paint — The paint is faded and peeling.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Fresh siding and paint would enhance the home's appearance and value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both the home's curb appeal and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image suggests significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding appears worn and faded.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · The paint is faded and peeling.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is sparse and in need of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Fresh siding and paint would enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve both the home's curb appeal and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1808250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $78,952
• Composite: 49.26/100
• National rank: #2027
• State rank: #25 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 29,583
• Household income: $112,676
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 467.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.27%
• Current HPI: 212.3516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-22 Listed $298,600 Zillow