2089 E Gemini Dr · Plum Grove, TX 77372

$169,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 813 sqft · Land · 215 Days on market

Built 2025 $209/sqft · at area comps Est $173k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hello and welcome to 2089 East Gemini Drive located in the Gemini community! This single-story house spans 813 square feet and features two bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you advance towards this lovely abode, you are welcomed by the front porch, equipped with overhead lights and providing a place to relax as you enjoy Mother Nature. The soft breeze and bright sunlight one can experience in this part of the house will calm and rejuvenate their mind and heart. Upon entering the home, you will find on one side of the entryway a secondary bedroom finished with soft carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a bright window facing the front of the house. On the other side of the entryway lies a linen closet and a secondary bathroom. The bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. At the end of the entryway is the family room and kitchen. The open concept living and dining area of this house allows for optimal space for relaxing on leisurely weekends or hosting celebrations with family and friends. Natural light streams into the room, flooding the space with the rays of the Sun. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl flooring, a kitchen island, and a tall pantry with space for storage. Past the kitchen is the utility room and primary bedroom. The primary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring and a bright window facing the back of the property. The bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, complete with vinyl floors and a standing shower. The primary bedroom opens to

Key facts

• Soft carpet flooring
• Bright window
• Linen closet

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OVERHEAD LIGHTS
• SOFT CARPET FLOORING
• TALL CLOSET
• BRIGHT WINDOW
• LINEN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $138,072 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,990
• List price: $169,990
• Delta: -1.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,874
• Equity at exit: $25,346

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-35,430
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $157,836

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-25	+0% $-84	+5% $-143	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-139	+0% $-84	+5% $-29	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-41	base $-84	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,498
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,990 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,990 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,990 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,990 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,990 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,990 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,990 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,990 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,990 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,990 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,990 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,990 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,990 Active 194 DOM
15. 2025-11-18
    listed $169,990 Active 1495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1495 chars)

    Hello and welcome to 2089 East Gemini Drive located in the Gemini community! This single-story house spans 813 square feet and features two bedrooms and two bathrooms. As you advance towards this lovely abode, you are welcomed by the front porch, equipped with overhead lights and providing a place to relax as you enjoy Mother Nature. The soft breeze and bright sunlight one can experience in this part of the house will calm and rejuvenate their mind and heart. Upon entering the home, you will find on one side of the entryway a secondary bedroom finished with soft carpet flooring, a tall closet, and a bright window facing the front of the house. On the other side of the entryway lies a linen closet and a secondary bathroom. The bathroom is complete with vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. At the end of the entryway is the family room and kitchen. The open concept living and dining area of this house allows for optimal space for relaxing on leisurely weekends or hosting celebrations with family and friends. Natural light streams into the room, flooding the space with the rays of the Sun. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl flooring, a kitchen island, and a tall pantry with space for storage. Past the kitchen is the utility room and primary bedroom. The primary bedroom is finished with carpet flooring and a bright window facing the back of the property. The bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, complete with vinyl floors and a standing shower. The primary bedroom opens to

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,522
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $-60/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listed $169,990 Zillow