5045 Lily Street Pl N · Pinellas Park, FL 33782

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Condo · 25 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition $545/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Springwood 55+ Community! This 2-bed, 1-bath villa offers 950 sq ft of easy living with tile floors, a spacious layout, and a bright Florida room. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and a walk-in pantry, while the primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet. Roof replaced in 2018. Enjoy a clubhouse, pool, and more—just minutes from shopping, dining, beaches, and medical centers!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Walk-in closet
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished unit; Homestead declared; Third-party listing
• Financial info: Total annual fees: $6,540; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA — monthly condo fee of $545 (association approval required); Senior community; Pets not allowed; Association fee includes: none listed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Other parking features
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story / One level; Faces northeast; Unit on first floor
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building area approximately 1,025 square feet; Lot about 1.5 acres
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; No waterfront or water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pinellas Central Elementary School (math 51% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 498 students, 64% FRL); Pinellas Park High School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,919 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,350 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-13,758
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-19,577
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33782

• Rents YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$545
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9911 Dahlia St #38 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	8d	1	0.11mi
9505 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,297	$2.19	2d	19	0.18mi
4973 91st Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	14d	1	0.40mi
4973 91st Ave Unit 12 (C) Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	15d	1	0.40mi
10321 Larchmont Pl N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	24d	1	0.51mi
4701 88th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,853	$2.17	11d	20	0.58mi
5641 94th Ter N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$2,200	$2.06	8d	1	0.61mi
4940 87th Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	24d	1	0.70mi
10770 US Highway 19 N #605 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.72mi
8400 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,749	$2.47	2d	22	0.83mi
8851 US Highway 19 N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,295	$2.31	2d	23	0.85mi
5865 92nd Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,400	$2.26	18d	1	0.88mi
4355 84th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,550	$2.21	2d	10	0.94mi
5501 110th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,958	$1.96	2d	12	0.99mi
8311 56th Way Unit 2 Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$2,200	$2.93	24d	1	1.09mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	24d	1	1.12mi
4771 78th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,640	$1.82	24d	1	1.16mi
5060 76th Ave N #409 Pinellas Park, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	22d	1	1.40mi
4520 76th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,545	$2.21	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $545 · $6,540/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $110,000
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − HOA: −$6,540
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $370
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath villa in Springwood 55+ Community is in good condition with recent roof replacement and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to interior walls, countertops, and bathrooms would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and resale value
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modern countertops improve functionality and resale value ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinellas Park, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 50,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,461
• Household income: $66,461
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.17%
• Current HPI: 314.1689
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid