Duplex
192 York St · Buffalo, NY
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 91°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 9 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.2/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +8.8/10.0
- 1% rule +6.9/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- ARV discount +3.2/15.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.4/5.0
$299,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
EXCEPTIONAL 2 BED 2 BATH UNIT WITH ALL THE MUST HAVES. COMPLETELY BRAND NEW RENOVATED 2 STORY UNIT. WIDE OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR EASY ENTERTAINING AND LIVABILITY. GORGEOUS HARDWOODS THROUGHOUT, 2 NEW FULL BATHS, GOURMET KITCHEN WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCL DISHWASHER, 2ND FLOOR LAUNDRT WITH * * FRONT LOADER * * MACHINES!! TONS OF CLOSET SPACE TOO. OFF-STREET PARKING FOR 2 CARS!! SO STOP SEARCHING, AND CALL US TODAY.
Key facts
- Two family home
- Side by side units
- Updated kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $299k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $521/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
- Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
- Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,561/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
- At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $1k; list at $299k implies a 25900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.19% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.47%
- Cash-on-cash
- 14.93%
- DSCR
- 1.66
- GRM
- 7.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $273,180
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 192 York St | 0.00mi | 3/2.5 | 1,884 (0%) | 1mo | $285,000 | $151 | 97 |
| 193 14th St | 0.17mi | 3/2.0 | 2,040 (+8%) | 6mo | $156,000 | $76 | 69 |
| 145 14th St | 0.14mi | 3/2.0 | 1,710 (-9%) | 9mo | $281,500 | $165 | 66 |
| 132 Ashland Ave | 0.26mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,002 (+6%) | 12mo | $293,200 | $146 | 59 |
| 23 Sherwood St | 0.68mi | 3/2.0 | 1,830 (-3%) | 4mo | $150,000 | $82 | 56 |
| 147 Mariner St | 0.44mi | 4/3.0 (+1) | 2,098 (+11%) | 4mo | $365,000 | $174 | 52 |
| 475 W Ferry St | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 | 1,740 (-8%) | 6mo | $236,900 | $136 | 48 |
| 375 Plymouth Ave | 0.42mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 2,121 (+13%) | 4mo | $265,000 | $125 | 47 |
| 60 Elmwood Ave | 0.60mi | 2/3.0 (-1) | 2,064 (+10%) | 6mo | $299,900 | $145 | 46 |
| 116 West Ave | 0.69mi | 3/2.0 | 1,692 (-10%) | 4mo | $131,000 | $77 | 44 |
| 428 Normal Ave | 0.61mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,680 (-11%) | 9mo | $180,000 | $107 | 37 |
| 221 Lexington Ave | 0.55mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,620 (-14%) | 8mo | $425,000 | $262 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 29.3%
- Equity multiple
- 3.03×
- Total profit
- $169,691
- Equity at exit
- $217,305
- IRR
- 25.4%
- Equity multiple
- 6.06×
- Total profit
- $423,605
- Equity at exit
- $422,276
Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 14213
- Home prices YoY
- 1.7%
- Rents YoY
- -0.5%
- Active inventory
- 138
- Price-to-rent
- 14.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,561 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,568
- Tax from tax record
- −$79 /mo · $947/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$748
- Net cashflow
- $1,042
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,211 | -5% $1,126 | +0% $1,042 | +5% $957 | +10% $872 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $760 | -5% $901 | +0% $1,042 | +5% $1,182 | +10% $1,323 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,192 | -0.5pp $1,118 | base $1,042 | +0.5pp $964 | +1.0pp $885 |
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 3 | 1.5 | $3,560 |
| #1 | 3 | 1.5 | $1,780 |
| #2 | 3 | 1.5 | $1,780 |
| Total (2 units) | $3,561 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $74,750
- Closing costs
- $8,970
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 31 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 184 14th St Buffalo, NY | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1950 | $4,400 | $2.26 | 25d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 161 16th St Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1500 | $2,000 | $1.33 | 25d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 124 Normal Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1727 | $2,000 | $1.16 | 25d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1326 | $1,850 | $1.40 | 15d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 330 Bryant St Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2224 | $2,200 | $0.99 | 21d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 217 Norwood Ave Apt 1 Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $2,700 | $1.80 | 45d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 318 14th St Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1619 | $1,300 | $0.80 | 12d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 501 West Ave Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2552 | $1,850 | $0.72 | 21d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 501 West Ave Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2552 | $1,700 | $0.67 | 15d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 451 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1633 | $3,305 | $2.02 | 45d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 74 Days Park Unit 8 Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1350 | $1,695 | $1.26 | 45d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 126 Cottage St Unit 4 Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,000 | $1.33 | 15d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 569 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,750 | $1.17 | 13d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 899 | $2,440 | $2.71 | 25d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 405 W Ferry St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2480 | $1,500 | $0.60 | 45d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 506 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 1190 | $2,995 | $2.52 | 11d | 6 | 0.70mi |
| 19 North St Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1306 | $2,910 | $2.23 | 11d | 7 | 0.71mi |
| 550 Busti Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1638 | $1,500 | $0.92 | 45d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 385 Seventh St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2136 | $1,250 | $0.59 | 45d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 83 Baynes St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2550 | $1,850 | $0.73 | 15d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2000 | $1,995 | $1.00 | 15d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1600 | $2,100 | $1.31 | 25d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1059 | $2,812 | $2.65 | 3d | 5 | 0.98mi |
| 311 Herkimer St #1 Buffalo, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1272 | $1,400 | $1.10 | 15d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 100 S Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1213 | $2,260 | $1.86 | 4d | 2 | 1.22mi |
| 100 S Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1254 | $2,232 | $1.78 | 25d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 552 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2500 | $2,200 | $0.88 | 45d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 1360 Niagara St Buffalo, NY | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1252 | $2,396 | $1.91 | 3d | 2 | 1.33mi |
| 836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1982 | $4,500 | $2.27 | 45d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 340 Bird Ave #202 Buffalo, NY | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1505 | $2,950 | $1.96 | 11d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 465 Washington St Buffalo, NY | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1388 | $2,285 | $1.65 | 3d | 5 | 1.44mi |
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-03-07status Pending
-
2026-02-21status Active
-
2026-02-14status Pending
-
2026-01-20$299,000 Active
-
2014-09-15soldstatus $1,150 414-char remark
Show marketing remark (414 chars)
EXCEPTIONAL 2 BED 2 BATH UNIT WITH ALL THE MUST HAVES. COMPLETELY BRAND NEW RENOVATED 2 STORY UNIT. WIDE OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR EASY ENTERTAINING AND LIVABILITY. GORGEOUS HARDWOODS THROUGHOUT, 2 NEW FULL BATHS, GOURMET KITCHEN WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCL DISHWASHER, 2ND FLOOR LAUNDRT WITH * * FRONT LOADER * * MACHINES!! TONS OF CLOSET SPACE TOO. OFF-STREET PARKING FOR 2 CARS!! SO STOP SEARCHING, AND CALL US TODAY.
-
2014-09-08soldstatus $187,000 17-char remark
Show marketing remark (17 chars)
SOLD BEFORE PRINT
-
2014-09-03$1,150 414-char remark
Show marketing remark (414 chars)
EXCEPTIONAL 2 BED 2 BATH UNIT WITH ALL THE MUST HAVES. COMPLETELY BRAND NEW RENOVATED 2 STORY UNIT. WIDE OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR EASY ENTERTAINING AND LIVABILITY. GORGEOUS HARDWOODS THROUGHOUT, 2 NEW FULL BATHS, GOURMET KITCHEN WITH ALL APPLIANCES INCL DISHWASHER, 2ND FLOOR LAUNDRT WITH * * FRONT LOADER * * MACHINES!! TONS OF CLOSET SPACE TOO. OFF-STREET PARKING FOR 2 CARS!! SO STOP SEARCHING, AND CALL US TODAY.
-
2014-08-29soldstatus $187,000
-
2014-06-29$189,999 17-char remark
Show marketing remark (17 chars)
SOLD BEFORE PRINT
-
2009-06-05soldstatus $125,000
-
2008-01-10soldstatus $27,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $947 · $79/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,000 · $250/mo
- Expected delta
- +$2,053/yr (+$171/mo · 216.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $42,732
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,749
- − Property taxes
- −$947
- − Insurance
- −$1,495
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,419
- − Management
- −$3,419
- − Depreciation
- −$8,698
- Taxable income
- $8,006
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,921
- After-tax cash flow
- $10,579/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Buffalo City School District
- NCES district ID
- 3605850
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▲ 11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▲ 7.00%
- Median HH income
- $31,665
- Composite
- 33.17/100
- National rank
- #5544
- State rank
- #535 of 590 in NY
Livability — Buffalo
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #195
- US rank
- #3011
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Buffalo, NY
- County
- Erie County · 714,559 people
- City population
- 440,021
- Metro
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,107
- Household income
- $53,870
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1501.0
Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 933,037 people
- By 2030
- 935,181 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 928,531 · -0.5%
- By 2050
- 905,725 · -2.9%
- By 2075
- 834,037 · -10.6%
- By 2100
- 708,033 · -24.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
- Languages at home
- 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Erie
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 7.51%
- Current HPI
- 448.4879
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.49%
- Metro
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
||
| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
|
||
Price history
+1007.4% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-07 Pending — WNYREIS
- 2026-02-21 Relisted — WNYREIS
- 2026-02-14 Pending — WNYREIS
- 2026-01-20 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS
- 2014-09-15 Sold (MLS) $1,150 WNYREIS
- 2014-09-08 Sold (MLS) $187,000 WNYREIS
- 2014-09-03 Listed $1,150 WNYREIS
- 2014-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
- 2014-06-29 Listed $189,999 WNYREIS
- 2009-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
- 2008-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.0%/yrLatest (2025): $947 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…