1074 Jones Rd · Clay City, KY 40312

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Other · 61 Days on market

Built 2013 1.00 ac lot $144/sqft · 13% below area Est $183k · 13% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for that home that has been recently updated, priced competitively and only missing you in the picture? Stop searching as you have found the right place. This three bed two bath manufactured home comes many new updates including a new metal roof, gutters, front and back decks, multi-tank septic system, retaining wall with drain system and more. On the inside, the home has recently been refreshed with new paint, carpet and newer appliances as well as a new water heater. This list is not inclusive of all the updates, but when you look for yourself, you will realize that the only thing you will have to do is just move in and make this house a home. This would be a perfect starter home or a place to downsize in as the property has an easy yard to maintain. There is plenty of room to build a garage or place a good size storage building. Over half of the property is wooded, giveing you the feel of nature right off your back porch. Located only five minutes from the Mountain Parkway, you will have easy and quick access to the Red River Gorge as well as downtown Clay City and Stanton. This property is eligible for all loan types including VA, USDA and FHA. Make sure to ask how you could get approved with no money down! *Agent owned

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New water heater
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• MULTI TANK SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• EASY ACCESS TO RED RIVER GORGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Clay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#428 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Powell County (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #156 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Powell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powell County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $159k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,098 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,158
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -13.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-32,242
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-36,618
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40312

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $654/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $141,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-56	+0% $-101	+5% $-146	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-143	+0% $-101	+5% $-58	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-60	base $-101	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $160,000 Active 1260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1260 chars)

    Are you looking for that home that has been recently updated, priced competitively and only missing you in the picture? Stop searching as you have found the right place. This three bed two bath manufactured home comes many new updates including a new metal roof, gutters, front and back decks, multi-tank septic system, retaining wall with drain system and more. On the inside, the home has recently been refreshed with new paint, carpet and newer appliances as well as a new water heater. This list is not inclusive of all the updates, but when you look for yourself, you will realize that the only thing you will have to do is just move in and make this house a home. This would be a perfect starter home or a place to downsize in as the property has an easy yard to maintain. There is plenty of room to build a garage or place a good size storage building. Over half of the property is wooded, giveing you the feel of nature right off your back porch. Located only five minutes from the Mountain Parkway, you will have easy and quick access to the Red River Gorge as well as downtown Clay City and Stanton. This property is eligible for all loan types including VA, USDA and FHA. Make sure to ask how you could get approved with no money down! *Agent owned

17. 2025-11-19
    soldstatus $75,000
18. 2025-10-30
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

19. 2025-10-08
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

20. 2025-09-23
    price $86,500 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

21. 2025-09-08
    status Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

22. 2025-08-19
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

23. 2025-08-13
    price $89,900 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

24. 2025-07-07
    status Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

25. 2025-07-07
    price $95,000 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

26. 2025-06-17
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

27. 2025-04-18
    listed $139,900 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Freshly updated and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home sits on a peaceful 1-acre lot with wooded views and brand-new front and rear decks—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, you'll love the spacious open layout featuring new carpet, a large entertainment center, and a beautifully finished kitchen with dark cabinetry, modern countertops, and plenty of workspace. Natural light fills every room, creating a warm and inviting space throughout. Whether you're looking for your first home, a peaceful retreat, or an investment property, this one checks all the boxes! Cash only. Home don't have a septic.

28. 2025-02-17
    status Pending
29. 2025-02-17
    historical
30. 2025-02-05
    price $139,900
31. 2024-12-09
    price $149,900
32. 2024-11-18
    price $154,900
33. 2024-09-25
    price $164,900
34. 2024-09-11
    price $174,900
35. 2024-08-18
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $654 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 109.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$654
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $-227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powell County
• NCES district ID: 2104890
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $31,309
• Composite: 18.13/100
• National rank: #8967
• State rank: #156 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clay City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #20794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,156

Population outlook (Powell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,535 people
• By 2030: 11,076 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 10,174 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 9,307 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 7,369 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 5,806 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Powell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.4) · D 21.9% · R 76.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.4 2020: R+48.6 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+24.9 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.83%
• Current HPI: 192.7678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $86,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-08 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $89,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $95,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-17 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-17 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $154,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $164,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $174,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-08-18 Listed $179,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+37.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $654 · +1344.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.