113 Elizabeth Dr · Double Horn, TX 78669

$184,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 598 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1994 10,001 sqft lot Est $180k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Boat ramp
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• PRIVATE 9 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• BOAT RAMP
• FISHING DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.3% in Double Horn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood El (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 202 students, 49% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 598 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $184k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 598 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,968
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4218 County Road 410	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	14mo	$199,000	$148	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,614
• Equity at exit: $27,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $22,005
• Equity at exit: $15,952

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78669

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,214/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$21
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $375	+0% $323	+5% $270	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $244	+0% $323	+5% $401	+10% $480
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $370	base $323	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Breezing Ln Spicewood, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,200	$1.79	18d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,500 Active 598 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,500 Active 597 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 594 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 291-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 593 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 592 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 591 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 589 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 588 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    price $184,500 Active 585 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,500 Active 585 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,500 Active 584 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,500 Active 583 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,500 Active 580 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 579 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 577 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 576 DOM
18. 2025-12-08
    price $189,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

19. 2025-12-08
    price $189,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

20. 2025-08-20
    price $194,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

21. 2025-08-20
    price $194,500 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

22. 2025-06-16
    price $199,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

23. 2025-06-16
    price $199,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

24. 2025-03-24
    price $209,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

25. 2025-03-24
    price $209,000 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

26. 2024-11-13
    historical $1,950
27. 2024-11-02
    listed $219,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

28. 2024-11-01
    listed $219,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Lakeside Community on Lake Travis! Remodeled mobile home on 2 lots in the Spicewood Beach Subdivision. New appliances and fixtures. New 2 car carport. Subdivision ammenities include a private 9 hole golf course, boat ramp, beach and picnic area, and a fishing dock.

29. 2024-10-24
    price $1,950
30. 2024-10-03
    listed $1,995
31. 2024-09-12
    historical
32. 2024-06-06
    listed $250,000
33. 2024-06-06
    listed Active
34. 2024-04-24
    status Active
35. 2024-04-24
    historical
36. 2023-12-14
    listed $275,000
37. 2023-12-14
    listed Active
38. 2023-07-26
    historical
39. 2023-07-13
    listed
40. 2022-08-24
    soldstatus
41. 2020-03-02
    status Pending
42. 2020-03-02
    historical Withdrawn
43. 2020-02-20
    price
44. 2020-01-20
    listed Active
45. 2007-11-13
    soldstatus
46. 2006-10-05
    soldstatus $47,000
47. 2005-06-30
    soldstatus
48. 2004-04-26
    listed $45,000
49. 2001-07-17
    historical
50. 2000-08-07
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,163/yr (+$97/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,214
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable income: $974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$234
• After-tax cash flow: $3,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Double Horn

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $128,000
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 251.3551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+321.1% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $189,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $189,500 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $194,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $194,500 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $199,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $199,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $209,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $209,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $1,950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-02 Listed $219,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-11-01 Listed $219,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $1,950 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-03 Listed for Rent $1,995 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-06-06 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2024-06-06 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-24 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-12-14 Listed $275,000 LERA
• 2023-12-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-07-26 Rental Removed — ACTRIS
• 2023-07-13 Listed for Rent — ACTRIS
• 2022-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-02 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-02 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2020-02-20 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-01-20 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2007-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2004-04-26 Listed $45,000 Unlock MLS
• 2001-07-17 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2000-08-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1999-07-29 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-03-25 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,214 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.