1514 N Thompson St · Conroe, TX 77301

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1940 Est $157k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Precious single family home located approximately eight blocks from the county courthouse on the beautiful North Thompson street of Conroe. .. waiting for someone to love. It was my grandmother& apos; s home and she passed several years ago. Has a brand new three ton central a/c unit. Fresh paint and new laminate flooring throughout. Needs some work in the playroom and utility room. This is why we have it priced so reasonable. Has a work shop/ garage in the back. With its rustic charm would be a precious home for a new family or retired couple! Any offer will be considered. Please call Rachel.

Key facts

• Work shop garage
• Central ac unit
• Built 1940

Tags

• CENTRAL AC UNIT
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• WORK SHOP GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Houston El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 608 students, 95% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,488 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 N Roberson St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	861 (-4%)	8mo	$150,000	$174	73
1017 W Austin St	0.72mi	2/1.0	920 (+2%)	2mo	$112,500	$122	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-22,989
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-24,672
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,674/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $80	+0% $39	+5% $-2	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-11	+0% $39	+5% $89	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $76	base $39	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Lillian St Unit LL115 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	7d	1	0.21mi
1619 N Frazier St Unit 104 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	669	$1,495	$2.23	0d	1	0.48mi
1619 N Frazier St Unit FHH1 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	779	$1,299	$1.67	7d	1	0.48mi
1619 N Frazier St Unit 339 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	779	$1,365	$1.75	0d	1	0.48mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	779	$1,299	$1.67	26d	1	0.48mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,895	$2.30	9d	10	0.48mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,309	$1.34	45d	1	0.48mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 1047 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$909	$1.33	0d	1	0.53mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,103	$1.20	13d	1	0.53mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 952 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$905	$1.33	45d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 958 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,103	$1.20	0d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,144	$1.25	0d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 1228 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$868	$1.27	0d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 1162 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$879	$1.29	7d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,119	$1.22	9d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 975 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$918	$1.34	12d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 320 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$879	$1.29	9d	1	0.55mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 922 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	581	$945	$1.63	15d	1	0.55mi
510 Billie Bess Ln Unit 214 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$1,070	$1.69	45d	1	0.56mi
901 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	683	$868	$1.27	14d	1	0.57mi
511 N 3rd St Conroe, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	5d	1	0.66mi
1101 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,190	$1.65	17d	13	0.71mi
1107 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	703	$860	$1.22	45d	1	0.75mi
1206 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	779	$1,299	$1.67	45d	1	0.90mi
900 Holly Dr Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	15d	3	0.99mi
900 Holly Dr Unit 16 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	45d	1	0.99mi
241 Interstate 45 S Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.02mi
2007 Cedar Ln Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	607	$875	$1.44	45d	1	1.05mi
2020 Plantation Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,180	$1.51	0d	18	1.12mi
1900 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$943	$1.30	14d	1	1.21mi
1900 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,320	$1.30	9d	1	1.21mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,076	$1.06	13d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,025	$1.01	0d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1957 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,247	$1.23	15d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 320 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$954	$1.32	9d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1921 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$993	$1.37	12d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 420 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,065	$1.05	12d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1921 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,163	$1.61	15d	1	1.24mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1951 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,106	$1.53	45d	1	1.24mi
2219 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,100	$1.08	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 601-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$980/yr (+$82/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,674
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$1,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,674 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.