4264 Lakeview Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $400k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Lakeview Estates 55+ Community. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has been well maintained. With an open concept kitchen featuring an island, eat at bar, an abundance of cabinets for storage, a full tile backsplash, and pantry. The spacious living area has large windows & vaulted ceilings that make the home feel open & bright. New heat pump and water heater recently installed. in The primary bedroom has a walk in closet & an attached bath with walk in shower, 2 sinks, & linen cabinets. Large utility room featuring a washer & dryer that convey as well as heating cooling for the whole house. Enjoy the low maintenance backyard from the covered deck or sit on

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Full tile backsplash
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FULL TILE BACKSPLASH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED BATH
• WALK IN SHOWER
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is in a land-lease park (land lease amount applies)
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Senior community; Lakeview Meadows Park with clubhouse, common area, exercise room, pool, and spa/hot tub; Land lease fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage; Has garage
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; Public sewer; Puget Sound Energy power; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Palm Harbor Santiam model; One level
• Construction: Cement plank construction; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation with tie downs; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Very good condition
• Exterior features: Cement-planked exterior; Paved lot; Has view; Spa/Hot tub (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room with electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (625 students, 65% FRL); Komachin Middle School (643 students, 50% FRL); North Thurston High School (1,440 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 31% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $258,667 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,140
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3805 College St SE #16	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	5mo	$130,000	$77	78
4304 Lakeview Ct SE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	15mo	$385,999	$247	76
4508 36TH Ct SE	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+4%)	10mo	$415,000	$247	72
4291 Lakeview Ln SE #5	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	11mo	$330,000	$235	65
4262 Meade Ln SE	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-10%)	19mo	$375,000	$257	59
4243 Lakeview Ln SE	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,782 (+10%)	20mo	$399,000	$224	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-58,145
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,775
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,352/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $311,649

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-5	+0% $-98	+5% $-191	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-200	+0% $-98	+5% $4	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $-15	base $-98	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3725 Wildspitz Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1774	$2,695	$1.52	45d	4	0.12mi
4820 41st Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,395	$1.40	15d	1	0.52mi
4533 Stonegate St SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1868	$2,695	$1.44	45d	1	0.62mi
4821 27th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1718	$2,625	$1.53	45d	1	0.70mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,485	$2.55	15d	21	0.71mi
5208 43rd Ct SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,700	$1.33	45d	1	0.80mi
2700 Ruddell Rd SE Unit 2740-B Lacey, WA	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,695	$1.61	45d	1	1.10mi
5241 52nd Way SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2204	$3,100	$1.41	23d	1	1.14mi
3702 30th Ave SE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,900	$1.38	15d	1	1.15mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	23d	1	1.17mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,895	$2.20	15d	19	1.22mi
3425 Polo Club Ln SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,329	$2.49	15d	9	1.36mi
3622 57th Ln SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,999	$1.73	15d	1	1.40mi
3308 41st Way SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1917	$2,795	$1.46	15d	1	1.45mi
4566 Beckonridge Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,595	$1.57	45d	1	1.45mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	15d	1	1.47mi
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	45d	1	1.47mi
1606 Sulky Dr SE Lacey, WA	3.0	1.5	1319	$2,495	$1.89	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $329,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $345,000 Active
18. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus $299,000 Closed
19. 2022-04-20
    status Pending
20. 2022-04-09
    status Active
21. 2022-03-24
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2022-03-21
    status Active
23. 2022-03-20
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
24. 2022-03-17
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,352 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,352 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,352
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$6,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,662
• After-tax cash flow: $483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $345,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Sold (MLS) $299,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-09 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-24 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-17 Listed $299,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,352 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.