9403 Dazzling Tentacle Dr · Baytown, TX 77521

$220,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Private corner
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• PRIVATE CORNER

🏗️ New construction. The $220,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,402.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 972 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,774 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,402
• List price: $220,990
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9214 Burch Eagle Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	2mo	$246,990	$188	96
9207 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	2mo	$205,340	$157	96
9227 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+1%)	4mo	$244,990	$187	94
9503 Dazzling Tentacle Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	3mo	$269,990	$207	93
9214 Speckled Trout Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	4mo	$271,990	$209	90
9203 Speckled Trout Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	6mo	$273,990	$210	87
9211 Burch Eagle Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	2mo	$205,990	$141	77
9222 Burch Eagle Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	3mo	$255,590	$176	56
9235 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	4mo	$255,990	$176	55
9239 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	3mo	$259,990	$178	55
9223 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	4mo	$259,990	$178	54
9026 Artic Rockfish Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	7mo	$253,990	$175	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-80,318
• Equity at exit: $40,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-124,393
• Equity at exit: $23,379

Cash invested: $75,713 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $233,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 53 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 972
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,056/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,608

Max offer price $193,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-343	-5% $-436	+0% $-530	+5% $-623	+10% $-716
Rent	-10% $-683	-5% $-606	+0% $-530	+5% $-453	+10% $-376
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-461	base $-530	+0.5pp $-600	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,601
• Closing costs: $8,112
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5130 Red Drum Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,050	$1.35	46d	1	0.25mi
5202 El Tigre Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,105	$1.16	3d	1	0.27mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,045	$1.23	9d	1	0.70mi
8810 Wooster Trails Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,650	$1.13	10d	1	0.77mi
8317 Black Pool St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,400	$1.08	10d	1	0.83mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	120d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,973	$1.28	67d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	139d	1	0.87mi
4151 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1619	$1,951	$1.21	54d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	100d	1	0.90mi
4122 Saw Mill Peak Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$2,001	$1.24	29d	1	0.91mi
4818 Bentonite Blvd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$1,930	$1.06	0d	1	1.01mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	113d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes
• HOA & community: ACMI association with an annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $220,990 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $220,990 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $219,990 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $219,990 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $219,990 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $219,990 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $219,990 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $219,990 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $219,990 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $219,990 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $219,990 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $219,990 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $219,990 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $219,990 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $219,990 Active 65 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    price $219,990 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $226,990 Active 64 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $226,990 Active 63 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $226,990 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $226,990 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $226,990 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $226,990 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $226,990 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $226,990 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $226,990 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $226,990 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $226,990 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $226,990 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $226,990 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $226,990 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $226,990 Active 49 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $226,990 Active 48 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $226,990 Active 47 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $226,990 Active 46 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $226,990 Active 45 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $226,990 Active 44 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $226,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $226,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $226,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $226,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $226,990 Active 36 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $226,990 Active 34 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $226,990 Active 33 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $226,990 Active 31 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $226,990 Active 29 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $226,990 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,056
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,866
• Taxable loss: −$11,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,510–$19,530 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready. The home has a good layout and is well-maintained, with potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding decorative elements to the living room — Decorative elements can make the living room more inviting and visually appealing. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the functionality and appeal of the kitchen. ↑
• Both Landscaping the backyard — A well-maintained backyard can increase the home's overall appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can improve convenience and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle E F Green Junior School High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes
• HOA & community: ACMI association with an annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencingSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $226,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-26 Price Changed $236,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-25 Listed $236,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $233,190 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $233,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $237,740 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Listed $237,740 HARMLS