9430 Carolina Way · Fanning Springs, FL 32693

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1974 1.00 ac lot $147/sqft · 23% below area Est $324k · 23% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a fully fenced one-acre lot, this well-laid-out 3-bedroom home offers space, privacy, and flexibility both inside and out, all within the Bell Spring community, a unique neighborhood known for its private natural spring, tranquil setting, and authentic Florida charm. The home features an open floor plan that creates an easy flow through the main living areas, highlighted by electric fireplaces in both the living room and the primary bedroom, adding warmth and character. The kitchen includes an electric range and a fixed center island with generous workspace, opening to a large dining area ideal for everyday living or entertaining. An open laundry space enhances functionality, and the washer and dryer are included. The home offers three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and an updated bathroom. One of the secondary bedrooms does not have a closet, allowing flexibility for guest space, a home office, or hobby room. Out back, enjoy a private outdoor setting complete with a pool, multiple storage sheds, and ample room to relax or entertain. Please note: the newer shed does not convey. The property is part of a community with a low annual association fee of approximately $30, providing key fob access. Residents of the Bell Spring area enjoy a setting where tranquility, privacy, and natural Florida beauty come together, including access to a community spring known as “Bell Spring. ” Optional membership in the Suwannee River Springs Association (approximately $35 per year) provides access to private riverfront parks, a boat launch, and exclusive fishing areas not open to the public. Located just minutes north of Chiefland, this property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy acreage, outdoor amenities, and a nature-focused community while still remaining close to shopping, dining, and daily conveniences. With space to spread out, room to personalize, and access to one of the area's most unique natural settings, this property offers a lifestyle that's increasingly hard to find. Schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Fixed center island
• Fully fenced lot
• Electric fireplaces

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• PRIVATE NATURAL SPRING
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACES
• FIXED CENTER ISLAND
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SETTING
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-976/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fanning Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#739 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Trenton Elementary School (math 71% / reading 59%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 809 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $250k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,259 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,767
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -22.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9130 Maryann Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,669 (-2%)	10mo	$350,000	$210	73
9300 Emily Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+8%)	4mo	$375,000	$205	70
9219 Florida St	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,753 (+3%)	18mo	$225,000	$128	69
7710 Juanita Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,636 (-4%)	8mo	$334,000	$204	68
9140 Dorie Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+8%)	1mo	$345,000	$187	66
7900 Stephen Foster Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-10%)	18mo	$300,000	$195	63
9160 Blue Heron Cv	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-1%)	16mo	$292,000	$173	60
7642 Juanita Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-6%)	18mo	$260,000	$163	54
7733 Juanita Pl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,955 (+15%)	5mo	$365,000	$187	49
7751 SW 85th Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,843 (+8%)	8mo	$1,150,000	$624	46
7439 Mourning Dove Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-14%)	20mo	$310,000	$211	41
7246 Cardinal Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-13%)	9mo	$270,000	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $130,854
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $389,183
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $235,625

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-11	+0% $-81	+5% $-152	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-152	+0% $-81	+5% $-11	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-18	base $-81	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $250,000 2089-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot in the Bell Spring community, this 3-bedroom home offers privacy, space, and Florida charm. The open floor plan features electric fireplaces in the living room and primary suite, a spacious kitchen with center island, large dining area, and included washer and dryer. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and updated bath. One secondary bedroom has no closet, ideal for office or flex use. Enjoy a private backyard with pool and multiple sheds (newer shed does not convey). Low $30/year HOA with key fob access.

18. 2026-05-07
    price $250,000 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot in the Bell Spring community, this 3-bedroom home offers privacy, space, and Florida charm. The open floor plan features electric fireplaces in the living room and primary suite, a spacious kitchen with center island, large dining area, and included washer and dryer. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and updated bath. One secondary bedroom has no closet, ideal for office or flex use. Enjoy a private backyard with pool and multiple sheds (newer shed does not convey). Low $30/year HOA with key fob access.

19. 2026-05-07
    price $250,000

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot in the Bell Spring community, this 3-bedroom home offers privacy, space, and Florida charm. The open floor plan features electric fireplaces in the living room and primary suite, a spacious kitchen with center island, large dining area, and included washer and dryer. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and updated bath. One secondary bedroom has no closet, ideal for office or flex use. Enjoy a private backyard with pool and multiple sheds (newer shed does not convey). Low $30/year HOA with key fob access.

20. 2026-05-01
    listed $265,000 Active 2089-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2089 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced one-acre lot, this well-laid-out 3-bedroom home offers space, privacy, and flexibility both inside and out, all within the Bell Spring community, a unique neighborhood known for its private natural spring, tranquil setting, and authentic Florida charm. The home features an open floor plan that creates an easy flow through the main living areas, highlighted by electric fireplaces in both the living room and the primary bedroom, adding warmth and character. The kitchen includes an electric range and a fixed center island with generous workspace, opening to a large dining area ideal for everyday living or entertaining. An open laundry space enhances functionality, and the washer and dryer are included. The home offers three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with a walk-in closet and an updated bathroom. One of the secondary bedrooms does not have a closet, allowing flexibility for guest space, a home office, or hobby room. Out back, enjoy a private outdoor setting complete with a pool, multiple storage sheds, and ample room to relax or entertain. Please note: the newer shed does not convey. The property is part of a community with a low annual association fee of approximately $30, providing key fob access. Residents of the Bell Spring area enjoy a setting where tranquility, privacy, and natural Florida beauty come together, including access to a community spring known as “Bell Spring. ” Optional membership in the Suwannee River Springs Association (approximately $35 per year) provides access to private riverfront parks, a boat launch, and exclusive fishing areas not open to the public. Located just minutes north of Chiefland, this property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy acreage, outdoor amenities, and a nature-focused community while still remaining close to shopping, dining, and daily conveniences. With space to spread out, room to personalize, and access to one of the area's most unique natural settings, this property offers a lifestyle that's increasingly hard to find. Schedule your private showing today.

21. 2026-02-20
    listed $265,000 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    Set on a fully fenced 1-acre lot in the Bell Spring community, this 3-bedroom home offers privacy, space, and Florida charm. The open floor plan features electric fireplaces in the living room and primary suite, a spacious kitchen with center island, large dining area, and included washer and dryer. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and updated bath. One secondary bedroom has no closet, ideal for office or flex use. Enjoy a private backyard with pool and multiple sheds (newer shed does not convey). Low $30/year HOA with key fob access.

22. 2026-01-15
    listed $265,000 Active
23. 2024-05-25
    listed $265,000 Active
24. 2021-03-01
    soldstatus $64,000
25. 2015-02-05
    soldstatus $36,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,206/yr (+$100/mo · 138.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,308
• After-tax cash flow: $332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fanning Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #15960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fanning Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+592.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $250,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $250,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $265,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $265,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Listed $265,000 DGLMLS
• 2021-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $869 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.