27951 Hickory Dr · Splendora, TX 77372

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 356 Days on market

Built 1998 $144/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice mobile home located in a small and quiet neighborhood. No restrictions! Almost one acre of land. This property has a water well, so no water bill! The sewer runs on a septic system.

Key facts

• Almost one acre
• Water well
• Septic system

Tags

• ALMOST ONE ACRE
• WATER WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.09%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,196
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 2.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,802
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $25,918
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,317

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $420	+0% $371	+5% $321	+10% $272
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $300	+0% $371	+5% $441	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $415	base $371	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26471 Joy Village Dr Splendora, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	23d	1	0.68mi
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,265	$1.16	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 343 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 339 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 338 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 337 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 336 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 335 DOM
16. 2025-07-23
    price $174,900 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Nice mobile home located in a small and quiet neighborhood. No restrictions! Almost one acre of land. This property has a water well, so no water bill! The sewer runs on a septic system.

17. 2025-06-30
    listed $148,000 Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Nice mobile home located in a small and quiet neighborhood. No restrictions! Almost one acre of land. This property has a water well, so no water bill! The sewer runs on a septic system.

18. 2024-06-23
    historical
19. 2024-03-04
    price $159,000
20. 2024-02-29
    price $169,000
21. 2024-02-19
    price $175,000
22. 2023-08-28
    historical $1,300
23. 2023-08-26
    price $179,000
24. 2023-08-14
    price $189,000
25. 2023-08-09
    price $190,000
26. 2023-07-30
    listed $1,300
27. 2023-06-27
    listed $199,000 Active
28. 2023-06-27
    historical
29. 2023-03-23
    listed $199,000 Active
30. 2023-02-28
    historical
31. 2022-05-26
    listed $208,000 Active
32. 2022-04-25
    historical
33. 2022-04-11
    status Active
34. 2022-03-25
    status Option Pending
35. 2022-03-15
    listed $199,000 Active
36. 2022-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,201 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,598/yr (+$217/mo · 431.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $1,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $4,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $148,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-19 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-28 Rental Removed $1,300 HARMLS
• 2023-08-26 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-30 Listed for Rent $1,300 HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-23 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Listed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-04-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.