1B Quaboag Valley Co-op St · Sudbury, MA 01069

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 2010 Average condition Est $147k · 16% over $280/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained 2010 Colony Factory Crafted Home is nicely situated in Quaboag Valley Co-op with breathtaking views of the Quaboag River. This home offers approximately 840 SF, with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths rooms and a laundry room/pantry with exterior access to the large covered deck-perfect for outdoor entertaining. The large living room with vaulted ceiling is open to the kitchen/dining area that offers ample cabinets and counter space, appliances to remain for buyer enjoyment. The primary bedroom suite has newer wall to wall carpeting, a walk in closet and a private full bathroom. The second bedroom and main bathroom offers a perfect space for your guests. Enjoy the nice siz

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 2010
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association membership required; Association fee $280

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and 100 amp service; Gas hookups available for range and oven; Electric dryer hookup
• Home design: Mobile home; Olive exterior color; Single-story (first floor living areas)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Construction materials: see remarks; Year built (per owner)
• Exterior features: Porch; Covered deck/patio; Deck; Rain gutters; Exterior storage; Fenced yard; Fenced/enclosed property; Corner lot; Cleared, gentle sloping lot; Waterview with river access / walk-to river

Interior

• Kitchen: Vaulted ceiling; Vinyl flooring; Dining area; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor with full bathroom, walk-in closet, and wall-to-wall carpet; Second bedroom on the first floor with closet and wall-to-wall carpet
• Flooring: Wall-to-wall carpet; Laminate; Vinyl (kitchen)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first floor) with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Exterior access from living area; Pantry; Insulated doors; Insulated windows; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on the first floor; Exterior access from laundry area; Deck access from laundry/pantry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sudbury (suburban): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 302 in MA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.39%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Quaboag Valley Co-op St #15	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	2mo	$162,000	$175	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,019
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $55,524
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01069

• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$280
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 Cold Brook Dr Sudbury, MA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$3,715	$4.04	2d	8	0.82mi
20A Hemlock St Concord, MA	2.0	2.0	936	$2,700	$2.88	2d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $280 · $3,360/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $170,000
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $175,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − HOA: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $4,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $5,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2010 Colony Factory Crafted Home in Quaboag Valley Co-op is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a good layout and potential for value increase with updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light wear
• Minor interior walls — Some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Both landscaping — Improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both landscaping — Improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sudbury
• NCES district ID: 2511340
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $162,050
• Composite: 70.06/100
• National rank: #278
• State rank: #12 of 302 in MA

Livability — Sudbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Hampden County · 230,965 people
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• Population (ZIP): 8,821
• Household income: $80,190
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 14% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.60%
• Current HPI: 185.7406
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Springfield, MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $170,000 MLS PIN
• 2026-05-06 Listed $175,000 MLS PIN