4533 W Fern St · Egypt Lake-Leto, FL 33614

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1963 6,565 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Single family home near Veterans Expressway. Detached structure and fenced backyard.

Key facts

• 6,565 sq ft lot
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Zoning: RSC-9
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Other roof material; Slab foundation; Built area ~1717 square feet
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot about 0.15 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Other laundry feature

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,465/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 3363% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $250k implies a 620% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,458 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,099
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,360
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33614

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,538/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4518 W Knollwood St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.5	1075	$2,000	$1.86	24d	1	0.22mi
3812 W Fern St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1383	$2,800	$2.02	15d	1	0.34mi
6804 N Hubert Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	2199	$2,850	$1.30	18d	1	0.53mi
7210 N Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$1,816	$1.60	22d	3	0.77mi
7565 Gesualdo Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,900	$1.83	18d	1	0.91mi
7573 Gesualdo Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,900	$1.83	18d	1	0.91mi
7583 Gesualdo Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,900	$1.83	18d	1	0.92mi
7593 Gesualdo Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,900	$1.83	18d	1	0.92mi
6212 N Church Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1060	$2,800	$2.64	2d	17	0.93mi
6216 N Church Ave Unit 302 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1383	$3,100	$2.24	24d	1	0.94mi
6216 N Church Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1060	$3,100	$2.92	24d	31	0.94mi
6216 N Church Ave Unit 216 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1383	$2,800	$2.02	24d	1	0.94mi
7520 N Coolidge Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1902	$3,500	$1.84	20d	1	0.95mi
5820 N Church Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,600	$1.90	20d	2	0.98mi
5820 N Church Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,550	$1.61	2d	2	0.98mi
5820 N Church Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,600	$1.90	24d	3	0.98mi
4340 Villa Alina Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$4,500	$2.76	24d	1	1.03mi
4338 Villa Alina Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,900	$1.78	24d	1	1.04mi
3804 W Hamilton Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	24d	1	1.20mi
3436 Sunrise Villas Ct N Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,773	$1.66	24d	1	1.40mi
6014 Southern Comfort Blvd Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	1853	$2,295	$1.24	14d	1	1.40mi
3416 Sunrise Villas Ct N Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1240	$1,695	$1.37	20d	1	1.43mi
3416 Sunrise Villas Ct N Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,695	$1.37	15d	1	1.43mi
5505 N Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,825	$1.67	3d	8	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2023-04-04
   status Pending
4. 2023-03-29
   listed $315,000 Active
5. 2010-12-15
   listed $114,900
6. 2010-12-11
   historical
7. 2010-11-10
   listed $114,900
8. 2010-11-10
   historical
9. 2010-08-15
   listed $114,900
10. 2008-08-09
    historical
11. 2008-04-27
    listed $150,000
12. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $34,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$537/yr (+$45/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,538
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $4,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Egypt Lake-Leto

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Egypt Lake-Leto, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 47,298
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,298
• Household income: $50,232
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 37% White 18% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 32% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.33%
• Current HPI: 498.3567
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+620.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-29 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-15 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-10 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-15 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-27 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,538 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.